The study highlights a combination of ageing nuclear infrastructure, emerging AI capabilities, and a lack of global cooperation as key factors creating what it describes as an “unstable and dangerous landscape”.

So how do nuclear systems operate — and is an accidental launch actually possible?

Who can launch a nuclear weapon — and how it happens

Different countries have varying approaches to their NC3 systems, meaning the threshold for when a nuclear weapon could be launched is not universal.

“This gap in governance poses a real risk to global security — and it’s only growing.”

What could go wrong?

“In a world where AI tools can mimic official communications and cyber incursions can scramble critical infrastructure, the possibility of a false alarm triggering an escalation is no longer far-fetched,” Crawford said.

Crawford said in 2025, there have been growing concerns around disinformation and hacking campaigns targeting early warning systems.

A code of conduct

This could be modelled off a similar framework, like the Missile Technology Control Regime — an initiative of the G7 member states from the 1980s to limit the risks of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

An Australian academic is calling for an international code of conduct that countries could adopt to establish a universal approach to launching nuclear systems. Source: Getty / Anton Petrus

Crawford believes such a framework could be successful, as many states have already adopted most of the rules she outlined in her study.