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“It’s too beautiful,” Lailega Neemia says of her homeland, Tuvalu.
“It’s a good place to retire … stress-free … very relaxed lifestyle over there.”
But the ocean is rising and she, like many other Tuvaluans, worries their home may be completely underwater soon.
The South Pacific archipelago is likely to be the first country in the world to be uninhabitable due to climate change, according to the United Nations.
Climate change is causing sea levels to rise, which is especially problematic for Tuvalu, where the average elevation above sea level is only two metres. Scientists predict that 95 per cent of the country will be underwater at high tide by the year 2100.
In response, Australia and Tuvalu signed the Falepili Union — a landmark climate and security pact, opening visa pathways for 280 Tuvalu citizens to be granted permanent residency in Australia.
The ballot, which closed on the 18th of July, drew 5,157 applicants — roughly half of Tuvalu’s population.
Laleiga hopes members of her family will win the lottery and join her in Australia.
“I am very excited. I have four sisters in Tuvalu. I’m trying to get all of them over,” she said.
“I just feel I would love to have a sibling, a sister, closer with me here, staying next to me.”
The Australian government said the agreement was “the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world that recognises that Tuvalu’s statehood and sovereignty will continue, notwithstanding the impacts of climate change-related sea level rise”.
But the Neemia family hopes they can return home to Tuvalu one day — if there’s anything left to return to.
Hopes to return home
The Falepili Mobility Pathway ballot allows 280 Tuvaluans each year to live, work and study in Australia. Those selected gain access to subsidised education and child care, Medicare, and other government support, such as the family tax benefit.
Given Tuvalu’s national population is only around 11,000, some have speculated that the entire country could migrate to Australia within a generation if demand for the visa continues.
Pacific Minister Pat Conroy says the visa is different from most permanent resident pathways because it allows more freedom of movement.
Normally, unlimited travel for permanent residents is capped at five years.
“It is a world’s first approach to a relationship between two countries,” Conroy said.
“We’re responding to a request from the Tuvaluan government for migration with dignity. And so, we do envision that a fair number of Tuvalans will come to Australia out of a population of around 11,000.”
‘Hopefully it’s still there when we retire’
The Neemia family moved to Queensland 25 years ago, raising their family in Brisbane. But the plan was always to return home.
Lailega’s husband Tupa hopes they’ll be able to retire in Tuvalu — if it still exists.
“The plan was to come and work, when the kids grow up, we’d retire in Tuvalu,” he told SBS News.
“Hopefully it’s still there when we retire.”
Alopi Latukefu, director of the Global Centre for Social Justice and Advocacy Leadership, said climate change is already being felt across Tuvalu’s nine atolls scattered across the Pacific between Australia and Hawaii.
“We are seeing these communities faced with real challenges in the community from the perspective of not just inundation from the sea level rise, but also in terms of food security, water security in these communities, the impact from regular events — whether they be king tides or more serious events — that are creating a very difficult situation,” he said.
He said it’s important to understand that not everyone wants to leave Tuvalu and that it’s important Tuvaluans are supported to maintain their connection to their lands and culture.
“The decision to leave is a very big one and a very important one, and one which is tied to a range of other factors as well to support their families, to provide a pathway for a future, to have access to education, to have access to things that are part of the opportunity that Australia represents.”
But some may feel they have little choice.
Supporting fossil fuels ‘immoral and unacceptable’, says Tuvalu minister
In 2025-26, Australia committed $47 million in development assistance for Tuvalu, including for climate adaptation, telecommunications, infrastructure, health and education.
That includes support for Tuvalu’s Coastal Adaptation Project, which implements measures such as beach nourishment, concrete and rock revetments, and sea walls to reduce the impact of rising seas.
But Australia has faced criticism from some Pacific leaders for its continued investment in fossil fuels — which contribute to the very climate change Tuvalu is fighting.
Vanuatu’s minister for climate change, Ralph Regenvanu, called the project extension a “slap in the face” for Pacific Island nations.
“We have continued to make it very clear to Australia that we expect them to stop approving any new oil and gas projects,” Regenvanu said.
Tuvalu’s Climate Minister Maina Vakafua Talia has also urged Australia to curb its emissions.
“Opening and subsidising and exporting fossil fuels is immoral and unacceptable,” Talia said.
A 2024 report by Climate Analytics, commissioned by the Australian Human Rights Institute, found no evidence Australia is “transitioning away” from fossil fuels.
In 2021, it was the third-largest exporter of primary fossil fuels globally — behind only Russia and the United States.
Australia ranked second for exported emissions due to the scale of its coal exports.
Conroy says Australia remains a conscientious neighbour, mindful of climate change.
Tuvalu just the beginning
A 2024 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees report found that 90 million displaced people are now living in countries with high to extreme exposure to climate hazards.
By 2040, the number of countries in that category is expected to rise from three to 65.
Amid growing climate change risks, the Australian government introduced the Pacific Engagement Visa, which offers 3,000 visas to nationals from participating Pacific countries and Timor-Leste.
Up to 100 Tuvaluans were eligible through the first ballot. Final discussions are underway on participation for the second round, expected to open later this year.
This visa also allows recipients to return to their home countries freely.
“I’m really focused on making sure those first 3,000 settle visa grantees have the best possible experience of coming to Australia, and then we’ll just see where the numbers go. But at the moment, our policy is 3,000 places a year,” Conroy said.
While the transition can be difficult, as Laleiga well knows, she is reasonably optimistic for the prospects of incoming Tuvaluans.
“As long as they’re aware of what it’s going to be like with the help of the people already settled here. I think they’re going to be okay.”
