Australia's Path to World Cup Qualification against Japan

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Socceroos coach Tony Popovic is desperate for his side to “finish the job” and qualify automatically for next year’s FIFA World Cup.

Australia will all but seal a sixth consecutive World Cup appearance with a win over Japan tonight at Perth Stadium.

It sounds easy in theory, but it’s been 16 years since the Socceroos last defeated the Samurai Blue.

“We will break it,” Popovic said, referring to the winless streak.

“At some point, Australia will beat Japan.

A man wearing a black jacket and cap is smiling.

Socceroos coach Tony Popovic is hoping to lead the team to qualification for the 2026 World Cup. Source: AAP / Richard Wainwright

“I know that the players don’t take the responsibility lightly, we want to show that tomorrow with our performance.

“There’s real excitement from our group, as well as a sense of calmness.”

The Socceroos’ possible paths to the World Cup

If Saudi Arabia loses against Bahrain on Friday and the Socceroos record a first win over Japan in 11 matches, Australia will secure automatic qualification with a game to spare.

In the event both Australia and Saudi Arabia win, the Socceroos will need to avoid a heavy defeat against the Green Falcons next Wednesday to confirm their place at next year’s tournament.

In that case, Australia would only miss out on automatic qualification if they lose by five goals or more against Saudi Arabia.

Alternatively, the Socceroos could still lose against Japan, and a draw in the final game would still be enough to qualify.

A team of football players in yellow and green jerseys poses on a playing field.

If the Socceroos lose to Japan on Thursday, they will have other chances to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Source: AAP / Joel Carrett

In the event of two losses, the Socceroos will then finish third or fourth in their group and will have to qualify via a round-robin tournament in October, which is to be played at a centralised venue within the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).

Six nations will be placed into two groups of three and play each other once.

The two group winners will progress to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the Socceroos were to lose both matches in the round-robin tournament, they would miss out on football’s showpiece event for the first time since 2002.

However, if the Socceroos were to finish second in their group at the round-robin tournament, they would have another opportunity to qualify through the inter-confederation play-offs.

They would first have to defeat the second-placed nation from the other group in November in a two-legged playoff.

The winner will be the AFC’s representative at a six-nation playoff tournament in March next year, where the final two spots at the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be determined.

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