They are the beauty trends that take popular clinic treatments and make them accessible – and cheap – for all.

But are beauty trends like short manicures, “bronde” hair, and press-on nails actually recession indicators?

TikTok and Instagram users are claiming the shift towards affordable, low-maintenance trends like short nails, press-ons, and darker hair are signs the economy is set for a dramatic downturn.

But Australians spent $6 billion on cosmetics and toiletries in 2024-2025, according to an IBISWorld report, up almost 4 per cent from the previous year.

More than $3 billion of that was spent on makeup and skincare products.

Aussies are also expected to spend more than $12 billion on hairdressing and beauty services in 2025-2026.

“While some people might be looking for cheaper beauty alternatives to save money, the ‘recession indicator’ claim creates a misleading sense that people are scrimping in this particular area,” senior lecturer in Cultural Studies at University of Melbourne Hannah McCann told 9news.com.au.

“Beauty as an industry is remarkably resilient to times of economic crisis.”

Sydney nail artist Brittany Bedford is banking on that.

She owns and operates BB Claws, a boutique nail salon in Sydney’s south, and has clients booking months in advance as she heads into the busiest season of the year.

While some have taken to spacing out their appointments or picking cheaper nail designs to save money lately, few have been willing to give up their gel manicures altogether despite the rising costs.

“We have noticed a quieter period during the winter months,” Britt told 9news.com.au.

“But once the social season picks up, we see more clients seeking out their regular beauty services again.”

And that trend is likely to continue, even if the economy gets worse.

McCann pointed to the “lipstick index”, a popular (but unproven) theory that sales for “affordable luxury” items like lipstick spike when consumers think a recession is imminent.

“You give up a holiday before you give up lipstick,” she said.

Behavioural and applied economist and senior lecturer at RMIT Meg Elkins told 9news.com.au that improving one’s appearance might be a go-to when strained finances are putting a dent in the mental health of millions.

”When we feel bad, we want to look good,” Elkins said.

“And if you’re having to cut back on so many other elements in your life, tiny bits of luxury actually elevate the way you feel about yourself.”

McCann agreed, adding that these purchases can help Aussies feel more in control of their bodies and identities “when the world feels like it is out of control”.

Bedford said her clients have been understanding of recent price increases at BB Claws as overheads increase for small businesses like hers.

”A lot of our clients are in their 20s and 30s, so can relate on how hard it is to get ahead these days.”