Canada's 2025 Election: Leaders tell Trump to steer clear as citizens head to the polls

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Key Points

As Canadians headed to the polls, US President Donald Trump renewed a call for Canada to become the “51st state”.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and leader of the Conservative Party Pierre Poilievre are the frontrunners.
The Conservatives led the Liberals in polls in January but Trump’s threats have led to growing support for Carney.

Canadians have headed to the polls to choose a new leader as United States President Donald Trump renewed trade war and annexation threats on election day.

The Liberal Party, led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, looked set to lose to the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre until Trump’s attacks on Canada sparked a sudden reversal in poll forecasts.

Trump inserted himself into Canadian politics on election day with a social media post saying Canada would face “zero tariffs” if it “becomes the cherished 51st state”.

“No more artificially drawn line from many years ago,” he said.

Trump’s prominence in the race has hurt Poilievre’s chances of becoming prime minister and the leader of the Conservative Party hit back before he voted on Monday.

“President Trump, stay out of our election,” he posted on X. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will never be the 51st state.”

Carney also chided the president, saying on X: “This is Canada and we decide what happens here.”

The frontrunners

Carney, 60, has never held elected office and only replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister last month.

He had a lucrative career as an investment banker before serving as the central bank governor in both Canada and Britain.

Carney has argued his global financial experience has prepared him to .

“We don’t need chaos, we need calm. We don’t need anger, we need an adult,” Carney said in the campaign’s closing days.

Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, has tried to keep the focus on domestic concerns that made Trudeau deeply unpopular toward the end of his decade in power.

The Conservative leader argued Carney would continue “the lost Liberal decade” and that only the Conservatives would act against soaring costs, housing shortages and other non-Trump issues that Canadians rank as priorities.

A man with white hair in a dark suit drops a piece of paper into a ballot box

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney casts his vote in Ottawa, Ontario. Source: AAP / Sean Kilpatrick/AP

A possible historic turnaround

If the Liberals win, it would mark one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history.

On 6 January, the day Trudeau announced he would resign, the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 20 points in most polls.

But Carney replacing Trudeau, combined with nationwide unease about Trump, transformed the race.

Public broadcaster CBC’s poll aggregator final update late Sunday put the Liberals’ national support at 42.8 per cent, with the Conservatives at 39.2 per cent.

The performance of two smaller parties — the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois — could be decisive as strong showings by both parties in past votes have curbed Liberal seat tallies.

Nearly 29 million of Canada’s 41 million people are eligible to vote in the massive G7 country. A record 7.3 million people cast advanced ballots.

Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, meaning 172 seats are needed for a majority. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.

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