The landmark report detailed how climate change may choke food supply in regional Australian communities and found there will be a “high to very high risk” to primary industries by 2050.

The scenarios of 1.5, two and three degrees of warming were modelled in the NCRA report, which noted the particularly catastrophic effect of severe heatwaves on fresh fruit, vegetables and cattle.

“High temperatures can cause fruit sunburn, reducing the quality and marketability of produce,” the report states.

“While reduced frost will likely be a benefit, higher cool season temperatures can reduce flowering and yields in temperate perennial nuts and fruit (e.g. walnut, apple) and some tropical crops (e.g. mango, avocado).

“Heat stress in both dairy and beef cattle can reduce livestock productivity and welfare through changes in feed intake, behaviour, fertility and metabolism.”

Climate change is also expected to result in “major reductions” in Australian inland fish species due to rainfall deficits and intense hot temperatures.

Conversely, rising sea levels and flooding may drive food wastage.

The report pointed to a flooding in south-east Queensland in 2022 when milk tankers were forced to discard large quantities of milk due to road closures. 

The cumulative wealth loss in Australia from reduced agricultural and labour productivity from climate change could exceed $19 billion by 2030, $211 billion by 2050, and $4.2 trillion by 2100, the report found.

Soaring temperatures are also likely to result in job losses in the agriculture industry, with outdoor working conditions estimated to “exceed safe thresholds”.

As it stands, heatwaves are estimated to reduce annual productivity by $616 per worker, totalling $5.8 billion.

“Whether it be cropping, cattle sheep, fisheries… the report makes clear that Australia’s regional areas will be big losers from climate change,” Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said today.

Food and water security will be threatened as part of the climate catastrophe.

“Remote and rural communities are exposed to increased risks as climate hazards and events increase interruptions to water, energy, medical and telecommunication infrastructure and reduce food and water security through diminished road, air and water access,” the report added.

A spokesperson for Farmers for Climate Action (FCA) said the NCRA is a stark reminder of the “huge cost” of failing to reduce carbon pollution.

“We need deep pollution reduction this decade to protect our farmers and our food supply,” FCA chief executive Natalie Collard said.

“Commodities expected to be particularly hurt by climate change include livestock farming, because extreme heat hurts the animals and means less productive workers, as well as horticulture, cropping and irrigation.

“Food security is national security.

“It’s time all sides put their tribalism and ideology aside and work together to reduce pollution to protect our farmers and our food supply.”