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The New START Treaty, established in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, set restrictions on the number of nuclear warheads each nation could deploy.
Experts have cautioned that the treaty’s dissolution might usher in a renewed era of nuclear arms expansion, especially as countries like China aim to bolster their stockpile of these powerful weapons.
Originally set to expire in 2021, the treaty was extended for an additional five years, granting extra time for diplomatic negotiations.
The treaty is slated to officially expire on Thursday, February 5, in the northern hemisphere, with the date falling overnight in Australia.
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, informed The Associated Press that former President Trump was interested in maintaining global nuclear armament limitations and including China in future discussions.
Trump would make a decision on nuclear arms control “on his own timeline,” the official said.
Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin discussed the pact’s expiration with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but noted Washington had not responded to his proposed extension.
Russia would “act in a balanced and responsible manner based on thorough analysis of the security situation,” Ushakov said.
Arms control advocates have long voiced concerns about the expiration, warning it could lead to a new arms race, foment global instability and increase the risk of nuclear conflict.
Pope Leo XIV called for the treaty “not to be abandoned without seeking to ensure its concrete and effective continuation”.
Failure to agree on keeping the pact’s limits would likely encourage a bigger deployment, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.
“We’re at the point now where the two sides could, with the expiration of this treaty, for the first time in about 35 years, increase the number of nuclear weapons that are deployed on each side,” Kimball told AP.
“And this would open up the possibility of an unconstrained, dangerous three-way arms race, not just between the US and Russia, but also involving China, which is also increasing its smaller but still deadly nuclear arsenal.”
The New START agreement limited both nations to 1550 accountable deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs, and counted each heavy bomber as one warhead.
That’s about 30 per cent below the 2200-warhead limit set by the previous agreement, the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty.
New START also limited Russia and the US to no more than 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers assigned to nuclear missions, apiece.
Deployed and nondeployed ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers and bombers were limited to 800.
“If New START ends, the US and Russia could virtually double their deployed nuclear weapons in about six months,” Dr Tillman Ruff, of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) Australia, told 9news.com.au previously.
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