Did the Coalition's planned reductions in migration have negative consequences?

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A pledge to cut migration levels could be one of the key issues to haunt the Coalition as it reels from its .

Part of the Coalition’s pitch to voters was a proposed 100,000-place cut to net overseas migration (the difference between the number of people entering and leaving Australia).

While it said the bulk of the cuts , the lack of detail around which visa streams would be targeted was repeatedly scrutinised in the final weeks of the campaign.

Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh told SBS News the Coalition’s immigration stance “absolutely” backfired.

“Where the electorate was wanting hope and a positive plan, they were offering negativity,” Welsh said.

“Whether that was on immigration, , [or] whether that was on public servants.”

Coalition policies ‘a negative’ for diverse communities

linked record levels of migration — which peaked at 536,000 in 2022-23, but which Treasury estimates will return to 260,000 next year — with exacerbating demand on housing supply and pushing up prices.

While Dutton ruled out cutting partner and working holiday visa places, he pledged to reduce international student numbers by by 25 per cent.

Welsh argued that in diverse communities, this rhetoric turned voters away from the Coalition.

He said there are two distinct voting blocs — established migrant communities and those in the “growth phase”, which are experiencing higher levels of migration to Australia.

Among the latter, which includes the Chinese and Indian diaspora, Welsh said the Coalition’s immigration policies “really were a negative”.

“For families that are thinking about wanting to bring family over, because those communities are in this growth phase, that Liberal stuff was definitely a drag to them,” he said.

This was evident in the results across Sydney and Melbourne.

Labor retained Hawke, Gorton and Chisholm in Victoria, and Parramatta and Reid in NSW, despite early polling showing these highly diverse seats were contestable.

The Asylum Seeker Resource Centre said voters had rejected the politics of fear and division.

“Voters have acted with compassion and it’s time for our elected representatives and political leaders to reflect this in the incoming parliament,” deputy CEO Jane Favero said in a statement.

Migration numbers ‘weaponised’ but predicted to ‘plummet’

In a March working paper, emeritus professor Peter McDonald and professor Alan Gamlen of the ANU Migration Hub argued that migration numbers were being “weaponised” to “elicit panic and sway voters”.

They outlined several reasons for the record migration levels during 2022-23.

These included an influx of students, backpackers and temporary workers unable to travel during the pandemic, as well as several visa extensions under the Morrison and Albanese governments.

However, with student levels on the decline and many of these extensions set to expire, they predict migration levels will sharply drop in three to four years.

“From about 2027, as the number of departures expands considerably, net overseas migration is likely to plummet,” they said.

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