At the start of the year, Peter Dutton found himself in the unlikely position of making history in this federal election.

He did end up doing just that – just not in the way he wanted.

No opposition has replaced a first-term government since 1931. And until last night, no sitting opposition leader had lost their own seat at a federal election.

Dutton’s defeat in his own seat of Dickson was emblematic of a disastrous night for his Coalition.

“We didn’t do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight and I accept full responsibility for that,” he said in his concession speech.

It was a speech that was widely praised, but also a sign of what some experts thought was missing in recent weeks.

“Thanking the AFP shows the kind of man that he is and the things that he values, the people that take time to try and, you know, to help him and his family out,” Nine chief political editor Charles Croucher said.

“Also, the thought of thanking the returned servicemen… that was the side of Peter Dutton I don’t think we saw enough throughout this campaign.

“That was the side that was on display there.”

Dutton has been publicly perceived as the hard man of Australian politics for many years now, a result at least in part from some of his cabinet positions and his background as a Queensland cop.

Immigration and border protection minister, home affairs minister, defence minister – there aren’t many friendly photo ops in those portfolios.

Christopher Pyne, who served alongside Dutton in the cabinet, said the reality of the opposition leader is quite different.

“I always thought he’s been a very misunderstood character in politics,” Pyne said on Nine’s election coverage.

“He’s always been given tough jobs – to stop the boats and to make that message very clear to the public when he was in home affairs, that was always very hard to overcome.

“A lot of people held that against him for a long time and obviously still do.”

Nine national affairs editor Andrew Probyn drew an unlikely comparison to a former Labor prime minister.

“I have long thought that Peter Dutton’s got a touch of the Julia Gillard about the way that he hasn’t been able to project that other side of his personality,” he said.

“And I think it is to do with a lot of the jobs he’s been given.

“He’s also actually really shy, and that’s the really strange mix of the man.”

The misunderstandings, though, ended up going both ways.

On the campaign, Dutton often pointed to internal polling that said the Coalition would be in with a winning chance in the key suburban seats that would prove decisive.

He said repeatedly that the election was a referendum on the Labor government and on Albanese as prime minister.

The result makes for sober reading: history books will list Dutton as the leader who oversaw one of the Coalition’s most disastrous elections, and couldn’t even win his own seat.