In January, devastating wildfires swept across Los Angeles , killing at least 28 people and destroying more than 10,000 homes. Now, a study has warned that this could be a taste of things to come. Scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China say that the frequency of fires in cities is set to skyrocket, thanks to climate change.

In the study, the team predicted the number of urban fires that could happen in 2,847 cities across 20 countries over the next 75 years. And if greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb, their projections suggest that there could be devastating consequences. Under a high emissions scenario, the scientists predict there could be a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires in cities around the world by 2100.

Terrifyingly, this would lead to 335,000 fire-related deaths, and 1.1 million fire-related injuries, they say. ‘We find that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high volume of fire casualties,’ the researchers wrote in their study. Each year, fires cause an estimated 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries around the world.

In their new study, the team set out to understand how these figures could change amid rising global temperatures. Writing in their study, published in Nature Cities , the researchers, led by Long Shi, explained: ‘The current impact analyses have concentrated on vegetation fires rather than urban fires, even though they typically cause more direct fire casualties. ‘The trends in urban fire frequency due to global warming remain unknown.’

Firstly, the team established a global database of fire incidents for 2011-2020 using data from urban fire departments in 2,847 cities across 20 countries. The fires were split into three categories – building fires, vehicle fires, and outdoor fires. Next, the researchers assessed the likely impact of global warming on the frequency of each fire type.

Their analysis suggests that, under a high emissions scenario, there could be an 11.6 per cent increase in vehicle fires, a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires, and a 4.6 decrease in building fires by 2100. Unfortunately for Britons, the results show that the UK would be one of the worst affected countries. ‘The situation for some countries, such as New Zealand and the UK, is considerably worse, showing over 40% increase,’ the researchers said.

Under the high-emissions scenario, building fires in Britain could surge by around 10 per cent, vehicle fires by almost 15 per cent, and outdoor fires by more than 20 per cent. Based on these findings, the researchers also estimated the total number of fire-related deaths and injuries.

‘We find that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high volume of fire casualties,’ they warned. Based on the 20 analysed countries, the team estimate that global warming could directly lead to 335,000 fire-related deaths, and 1,153,000 fire injuries worldwide during 2020-2100.

The researchers hope the findings will help to shape climate mitigation strategies around the world. ‘This study can serve as a starting point for developing climate-resilient strategies, such as updating fire standards, mitigating human impacts, ameliorating fuel management and enhancing vehicles’ reliability,’ they added.

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