HomeAUHopes for Rate Cuts Diminish as Final Obstacles Emerge

Hopes for Rate Cuts Diminish as Final Obstacles Emerge

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Inflation has jumped once again, all but putting the final nail in the coffin for any chance of an interest rate cut in 2025, and even raising the spectre of another hike.

In October, Australia’s monthly consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged, yet the annual rate climbed to 3.8 percent, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This marks an increase from September’s 3.6 percent.

The trimmed mean – the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – also rose, albeit more gradually, up from 3.2 to 3.3 per cent.
Shoppers in a supermarket in Sydney.
Australians are once again battling sharply rising prices. (Dominic Lorrimer/AFR)

This inflation rate surpassed economists’ predictions, who anticipated a 3.6 percent rise, and now significantly exceeds the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3 percent.

“Any hope for an interest rate cut has vanished,” commented Charles Croucher, political editor at 9News.

“This figure is more concerning than anticipated, likely exceeding even the most cautious forecasts,” he added.

Previously, monthly inflation figures were less dependable since they were merely indicative rather than comprehensive. However, today marks a shift, as the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the complete monthly CPI for the first time. This data is particularly significant with the RBA’s final cash rate meeting of the year scheduled for December 9.

The data is so grim, according to Harry Murphy Cruise from Oxford Economics, that a rate increase now can’t be discounted at that meeting.

“All up, it’s a pretty ugly inflation print, dampening the excitement of the ABS’s newly revamped monthly CPI series – which, to their credit, is a major improvement,” he said.

“For the RBA, this keeps cuts off the table. In fact, a hike can’t be ruled out.”

In what will come as little surprise to most Australians, housing costs were the main driver of price rises over the past year, with electricity and rental costs the main culprits.

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