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According to the latest insights from Weatherzone, sea surface temperatures in the area are soaring to around 31 degrees Celsius. This is significantly higher than the 26.5 degrees Celsius minimum required for cyclone formation.
Ben Domensino from Weatherzone explained, “Currently, water temperatures north of Australia are about 1 to 2 degrees above the average for this period. Sea surface temperatures have reached up to 31 degrees west of the Top End and north of the Kimberley.”
This area of warm water northwest of Darwin is within the top 10 percent of historical records for this time of year. Such conditions indicate the ocean is ready to fuel tropical cyclone development in the upcoming weeks.
The Bureau of Meteorology has also addressed this possibility, indicating there is a slight chance of a storm forming as early as next Tuesday.
However, various forecast models suggest that the likelihood of cyclone development might increase somewhat by the end of the next week.
“Another factor that adds weight to the increasing potential for early-season tropical cyclone activity next week will be a tropical atmospheric wave passing to the north of Australia,” Domensino wrote.
“This wave, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), should cause an increase of cloud and thunderstorm activity near northern Australia next week.
“This enhanced storminess can help create low pressure systems that can deepen to become tropical cyclones.”
Despite the overall long odds of a cyclone forming, let alone making landfall in Australia, next week, residents in the country’s north are urged to keep an eye on the Bureau’s weather updates.