HomeAUIntense Monsoon Rains Set to Soak Australia's Top End Ahead of Christmas

Intense Monsoon Rains Set to Soak Australia’s Top End Ahead of Christmas

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Australia’s staring down the barrel of an earlier-than-expected monsoon season and it may arrive before Christmas, though not all states and territories will be affected.
Based on the current Weatherzone modelling, parts of Queensland, the NT and northern WA are set for a drenching when monsoon rainfall begins next week.

The monsoon’s influence may extend to other areas of the nation, potentially leading to wet conditions as its moisture interacts with rain-producing systems further south.

Forecast accumulated rain during the 10 days ending at 11pm AEDT on December 26, 2025, according to the ECMWF model.
Forecast accumulated rain during the 10 days ending at 11pm AEDT on December 26, 2025, according to the ECMWF model. (Weatherzone)

The precise onset and intensity of this active monsoon phase remain uncertain at this stage.

Meteorologists are keeping a vigilant eye on the evolving monsoon patterns as the season progresses.

Every year, Northern Australia undergoes a wet season that spans from November to April.

During this period, the region generally experiences between two to four active monsoon phases, characterized by a wind shift that brings substantial rainfall.

These active phases cause strong winds and heavy downpour.

They can also cause low-pressure systems, which may increase the potential for tropical cyclone activity if they’re over open water.

And it looks like the first active monsoon phase of the season will hit northern Australia right before Christmas.

Forecast precipitable water and 700 hPa wind at 11pm AEDT on Wednesday, December 24, 2025.
Forecast precipitable water and 700 hPa wind at 11pm AEDT on Wednesday, December 24, 2025. (Weatherzone)
It’s expected to arrive on the back of a heat wave in many parts of the country this week.

A mass of hot air from Australia’s western coast is currently sweeping across the nation, sending temperatures surging in WA, SA, Victoria, the ACT, NSW, and Queensland.

Even Tasmania will be feeling the heat today.

Some cities are predicted to record temperatures in the high 30s and low 40s today and tomorrow, with the hot conditions expected to ease over the weekend.

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