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In a significant escalation, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has issued his most direct challenge yet as the USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying American warships navigate the Arabian Sea. This deployment, orchestrated by former President Donald Trump, followed a harsh crackdown by Tehran on widespread protests.
President Trump has remained ambiguous about whether he will resort to military action. His narrative often includes references to Iran’s desire for negotiation, alongside critical discussions about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, which he aims to address.
The Iranian leader has characterized the protests as a “coup,” thereby intensifying the regime’s stance. Reports indicate that since the demonstrations began, tens of thousands have been detained, adding to the tension.
Sedition charges in Iran can be severe, potentially leading to the death penalty. This possibility raises alarms about the likelihood of mass executions, a scenario President Trump has identified as a critical concern.
Amidst these tensions, Iran intended to conduct a live-fire military exercise over Sunday and Monday in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil trade. The US Central Command had previously issued warnings against any threats to American vessels or aircraft and any disruptions to commercial shipping during the drills.
‘The Americans must be aware’: Khamenei warns US
Khamenei spoke to a crowd at his compound in Tehran as Iran marked the start of a days-long commemoration of the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. He, at one point, described the US as being interested in its oil, natural gas and other mineral resources, saying that they wanted to “seize this country, just as they controlled it before.”
“The Americans must be aware that if they wage a war this time, it will be a regional war,” he said.
The supreme leader added that: “We are not the instigators, we are not going to be unfair to anyone, we don’t plan to attack any country. But if anyone shows greed and wants to attack or harass, the Iranian nation will deal a heavy blow to them.”
Asked about the warning, Trump on Sunday told reporters that the US “has the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there, very close, a couple of days, and hopefully we’ll make a deal. If we don’t make a deal, then we’ll find out whether or not he was right.”
Khamenei also hardened his position on the demonstrations after earlier acknowledging some people had legitimate economic grievances that sparked their protests. The demonstrations began December 28, initially over the collapse of Iran’s rial currency. It soon grew into a direct challenge to Khamenei’s rule.
“The recent sedition was similar to a coup. Of course, the coup was suppressed,” he said.
“Their goal was to destroy sensitive and effective centres involved in running the country, and for this reason they attacked the police, government centres, (Revolutionary Guard) facilities, banks and mosques – and burned copies of the Quran. They targeted centres that run the country.”
The US-based Human Rights Activists New Agency, which relies on a network inside Iran to verify its information, reports that over 49,500 people have been detained in the crackdown. It says the violence killed at least 6713 people, the vast majority of them demonstrators. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll and arrest figures, given authorities have cut Iran’s internet off from the rest of the world.
As of January 21, Iran’s government put the death toll at a far lower 3117, saying 2427 were civilians and security forces, labeling the rest “terrorists.” In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.
That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 revolution.
Parliament speaker says EU militaries considered terrorist groups
The speaker of Iran’s parliament, meanwhile, said that the Islamic Republic now considers all European Union militaries to be terrorist groups, lashing out after the bloc declared the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard a terror group over taking part in the bloody crackdown.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Guard commander, announced the terror designation, which will likely be mostly symbolic. Iran has used a 2019 law to reciprocally declare other nations’ militaries terror groups following the US declaration of the Guard a terror group that year.
Qalibaf made the announcement as he and others in parliament wore Guard uniforms in support of the force. The Guard, which also controls Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and has vast economic interests in Iran, answers only to Khamenei.
“By seeking to strike at the (Guard), which itself has been the greatest barrier to the spread of terrorism to Europe, Europeans have in fact shot themselves in the foot and, once again, through blind obedience to the Americans, decided against the interests of their own people,” Qalibaf said.
Lawmakers at the session later chanted: “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” at the session.
Trump says Iran is ‘seriously talking’ to US
Trump has laid out two red lines for military action: the killing of peaceful protesters or the possible mass execution of those detained in a major crackdown over the demonstrations. He’s increasingly begun discussing Iran’s nuclear program as well, which the US negotiated over with Tehran in multiple sessions before Israel launched a 12-day war with Iran back in June.
The US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites during the war. Activity at two of the sites suggests Iran may be trying to obscure the view of satellites as it tries to salvage what remains there.
Trump on Saturday night declined to say whether he’d made a decision on what he wanted to do regarding Iran.
Speaking to reporters, Trump sidestepped a question about whether Tehran would be emboldened if the US backed away from launching strikes on Iran, saying, “Some people think that. Some people don’t.”
Trump said Iran should negotiate a “satisfactory” deal to prevent the Middle Eastern country from getting any nuclear weapons, but said, “I don’t know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us.”
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