Is Iran at risk of a change in government, and what might that entail?

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Iran’s supreme leader was publicly absent as airstrikes illuminated the skies above Tehran and Tel Aviv, prompting questions about whether change within the Islamic Republic was imminent or even possible.

In an interview with SBS News, Iran’s ambassador to Australia Ahmad Sadehi warned any Western-led attempt to remove Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would have a “disastrous reaction”.

After the US joined strikes on Iran, senior officials in Washington said the goal of the bombings was not regime change.

It contradicted remarks by US President Donald Trump on his social media platform, hinting at the possibility of regime change and calling to “Make Iran Great Again”.

On Thursday, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz confirmed that Israeli forces would have “taken out” Iran’s supreme leader during the 12-day conflict, if he hadn’t gone underground.

For weeks, Khamenei had been sheltering in a bunker with no electronic communication, even with senior commanders.

On Thursday night, he emerged in a 10-minute video to declare victory over Israel, claiming his country “delivered a hard slap to America’s face”.

With damage inflicted during the attacks, domestic dissent growing, and ongoing international sanctions and pressure over its nuclear program, is regime change possible?

We consulted the experts.

How long has Ayatollah Khamenei been in power?

Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei has served as Iran’s second supreme leader since his predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, died in 1989.

Lacking religious credentials and popularity, Khamenei was an unlikely successor and has steadily tightened his grip over three decades.

There are two sources of power in the Islamic Republic: divine rule as enshrined in the Supreme Leader and the bodies that support his role, and a quasi-democratic republican system that sees the president, parliament and others elected by the people.

Dr Dara Conduit, a political science lecturer at Melbourne University, said Khamenei is the head of the Islamic side of Iran but “wields enormous power over the republican side” too.

Exercising his power beyond constitutional means, he also controls paramilitary bodies such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is separate from the Iranian military forces.

“His power is extended across not only society, but also across the economy, across the military aspects of the state.

“And really, he has tentacles everywhere,” she said.

How have Israeli and US strikes affected the regime?

US and Israeli strikes have not only killed senior commanders in the regime, but Iran has also “suffered from embarrassment”, according to Conduit.

“Any government in any state needs to be able to make a case that it can keep its population safe. And it’s very clear that the Iranian regime failed to do this,” she said.

Jason Brodsky, policy director of the US-based non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran, said strikes have “set back the nuclear program a number of years”.

He said there’s also a psychological impact of US bombings, reversing doubt within Khamenei’s mind that the US was unwilling to employ force against the regime.

Satellite image of Iran's Fordo uranium enrichment facility

A satellite image shows a close-up view of holes and craters on a ridge at the Fordow underground uranium enrichment following US airstrikes in Iran. Source: EPA / Maxar Technologies

Director of Middle East Studies Forum at Deakin University, Shahram Albarzadeh, said that while the impact on Iranian infrastructure — beyond nuclear — has been significant, Iran has not been damaged politically.

“Forcing Iran to change its policies under fire has hardened the resolve of the political elite,” Albarzadeh told SBS News.

“It has hardened the resolve of hardliners in the regime to become even less compromising and less tolerant of the United States, of the international community, and of any hope of finding a diplomatic solution.”

Albarzadeh suggests security agencies will receive greater scope and powers to deal with dissent.

All three experts warned that the aftermath of strikes domestically will be devastating for the people of Iran.

Iranian state media have reported arrests and executions of Iranian citizens, particularly for crimes related to collaboration with Israel, following the escalation between Israel and Iran.

What would a regime change look like?

Conduit thinks that although the Iranian regime’s days are numbered, “change can only come from inside that country”, pointing to the 1979 revolution that created the Islamic Republic as an example.

“This country is too big, too complex. The regime is too strong … the only way the regime is going to come unstuck is by society itself, overthrowing and rising against it,” she said.

There have been successive uprisings in Iran. In September 2022, the arrest and death of Mahsa Amini over allegedly violating Iran’s hijab rule ignited anger and protests referred to as the Women, Life, Freedom uprising.

Brodsky said there have been protests over economic, political and social grievances for years, but that the country lacks a “visible alternative … that is able to really pose a threat to the Islamic Republic”.

Protesters take part in a “Woman, Life, Freedom” rally for Iran women in Sydney in 2022. Source: EPA / Steven Saphore

Albarzadeh said a “regime change in Iran is a fanciful idea and not a realistic scenario”.

“The only way it can happen is through foreign intervention, and that would be akin to the Iraqi experience of US invasion of Iraq, which would result in civil war,” he added.

Initially, US strikes prompted questions about a Western-led intervention, drawing comparisons to Iraq.

Albarzadeh said Iran’s regime is unlikely to fall like Iraq, where mercenaries were unwilling to put their lives on the line to die for Saddam Hussein.

“In the case of Iran, you have an ideological army that is committed to the survival of the regime and sees this as a battle of good against evil,” he explains.

“That’s why the regime is unlikely to fall, or at least fall easily, in the face of foreign intervention.”

Brodky adds that the Iranian people are not asking for foreign intervention, nor do they want the West to impose a leader.

“I think the West can play a role in weakening the regime and denying it resources via economic sanctions and through diplomatic isolation. Those are the tools they’re asking for,” he said.