This year, perhaps more than any other, there’s been one big – huge – name looming over the Nobel Peace Prize.

But as the world asks if US President Donald Trump can really cap off his relentless campaign for the prestigious award with a win today (tonight AEDT), there’s a list of other fascinating questions still to answer.

Does the Gaza peace plan make a difference? What is the Nobel committee really looking for anyway? What are some of the other names in contention? And would it be a good thing for the world if Trump wins – or loses?

Can Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize today?

Of course he can but those in the know seem to think he probably won’t. 

Experts say the Norwegian Nobel Committee typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.

Trump, for all his claims of having “ended seven wars” and his rapid-fire rush to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a peace plan this week, has also shown disdain for multilateral institutions and his disregard for global climate change concerns.

Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), told 9news.com.au she believed it was “unlikely” for Trump to win this year.

“While he clearly deserves credit for his efforts to end the war in Gaza, it is too early to tell whether the peace agreement will lead to lasting peace,” she said, in a statement.

“The Nobel Committee may also want to look at the sum of a candidate’s efforts towards peace. 

“Trump’s retreat from international institutions, and his wish to take over Greenland from The Kingdom of Denmark, a NATO-ally, do not align well with the will of Alfred Nobel.”

Trump’s own outspokenness about possibly winning the award might work against him: The committee won’t want to be seen as caving in to political pressure she said, describing his prospects as “a long shot”.

“His rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective,” she said earlier this week at a press briefing in Norway.

Another thing counting against Trump is the timing of the award. Nominations closed on January 31, 11 days after he returned to the White House, although at least one politician said they nominated him before that deadline.

On Thursday, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said it held its last meeting on Monday.

All those factors would seem to indicate that if, and that’s a big if, the committee is inclined to recognise Trump, its members might be more likely to wait for next year.

What happens if Trump wins (or loses)?

Alistair Campbell, who was a senior figure in former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair’s cabinet, suggested the prize announcement was a “big part” in the timing of the Gaza announcement.

“He sort of woke up a few days ago and thought ‘If I’m gonna get this peace prize, I’ve got to stop this fighting now’, and he’s really, really gone for it,” he said on the Rest of Politics podcast this week.

Campbell said rewarding him would be “absurd” even if the fighting stopped immediately, because peace was not just about stopping wars but the “durable peace” that follows.

His co-host, former Tory minister Rory Stewart, questioned whether it would be better to keep Trump involved in the process with the “carrot” of next year’s prize.

“Do you think it would be more motivating for Trump to remain engaged if he won the prize on Friday, or if they dangled the possibility that if he did a good job over the next 12 months, they might give him the prize next year,” he asked.

Last month, Trump told a gathering of military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia that if he didn’t win it would be a “big insult to our country”.”They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing; they’ll give it to the guy who wrote a book about the mind of Donald Trump,” he said.

Some observers have questioned whether Trump could blame and punish Norway if he doesn’t win.

The five-member committee is appointed by the Norwegian parliament but is completely independent. 

Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eid stressed Norway’s government is not involved in the Nobel Peace Prize decisions.

“It’s simply up to the Nobel Committee. It’s important to remember it’s an independent committee,” he told Bloomberg.

Trump has been nominated several times by people within the US as well as politicians abroad since 2018.

His name was put forward in December by US Representative Claudia Tenney, her office said in a statement, for his brokering of the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states in 2020.

Nominations made this year from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Pakistan’s government occurred after the January 31 deadline for the 2025 award, as did Argentine President Javier Milei’s endorsement on X this week.

Trump has said repeatedly that he “deserves” the prize and claims to have “ended seven wars”. 

Last week, he teased the possibility of ending an eighth war if Israel and Hamas agree to his peace plan aimed at concluding the nearly two-year war in Gaza.

“Nobody’s ever done that,” he said.

Israel and Hamas have since agreed to the first phase of the peace plan for Gaza, paving the way for a pause in the fighting and the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. 

In the early hours of Thursday, families of hostages and their supporters started chanting “Nobel prize to Trump” as they gathered in Tel Aviv’s hostage square.

The Nobel Committee won’t reveal the list of nominees until 2075 so we don’t actually even know who is in the running. 

What are the bookies saying?

Despite the overwhelming views of Nobel watchers, Trump has shot into contention among the bookmakers’ favourites since the Gaza deal was announced.

This morning one Australian bookmaker had him at $2.60 to win, behind only Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms ($1.72) and much more-fancied than the Mediterranean Sea Rescue Organisations ($4) and Yulia Navalnaya ($5), the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Australia’s Julian Assange was paying $7, alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and runner Nedd Brockman was the longest of long shots at $101.

Why are people talking about Obama

While giving Trump the prize after just nine months in the job would be extraordinary, there is one surprisingly direct modern precedent.

Former US president Barack Obama was at the exact same point in his first term when the Nobel committee recognised him in 2009 “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”.

But it was a decision the committee’s then-secretary, Geir Lundestad, said didn’t provide the expected boost to the president, instead provoking criticism in the US, where many argued he hadn’t been in charge long enough to have an impact worthy of the prize.

“Even many of Obama’s supporters believed that the prize was a mistake,” Lundestad wrote in his memoir, Secretary of Peace, in 2015. 

“In that sense the committee didn’t achieve what it had hoped for”.

Lundestad had left the committee earlier that year and died in 2023 so it’s unclear what impact, if any, those reflections would have on this week’s decision.

– Reported with Associated Press