Speaking in Brisbane, Dutton publicly conceded the election and his own seat, saying “tonight’s not the night that we wanted for the Liberal Party or for our Coalition or indeed for our country”.

“We didn’t do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight and I accept full responsibility for that,” he said.

“Earlier on, I called the Prime Minister to congratulate him on his success tonight. It’s an historic occasion for the Labor Party, and we recognise that.

“I congratulated the Prime Minister and wished he and Jodie and Nathan all the very best.

“And I said to the Prime Minister that his mum would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight, and he should be very proud of what he’s achieved.”

The opposition leader said that he had also spoken to France and Independent candidate Ellie Smith, conceding defeat for his seat of Dickson.

“Ali France and Ellie, and I have been combatants for a number of elections now,” he said.

“But she [France] was successful in Dickson tonight and she will do a good job as as the local member.”

“Dickson had a one term curse. It was only ever held for one term at a time, and we’ve held it for 24 years, which is an amazing achievement,” he added.

With Dutton set to lose his seat of Dickson, the Liberals will have to find a new leader.

Early counts have shown a 10.4 per cent swing to Labor in Dickson, where 37.85 per cent of the vote has been counted.

France sits at 34.3 per cent of the first preference votes, while Dutton sits at 31.1 per cent, and Independent candidate Ellie Smith is at a modest 13.0 per cent.

Preferences from Smith, who is backed by environmental group Climate 200 and calls herself a “maroon” independent, could decide the seat.

“This is concerning for the Liberal Party,” Croucher said early in the night, labelling the seat “messy”.

He strayed away from making the call but said a Labor win in Dickson is “probable”.

“That is a probable gain for Labor at the moment,” he said.

“That is deeply worrying for Peter Dutton and for the LNP.”

Labor’s Chris Bowen said Labor is not ready to call the seat but believes they have a decent chance.

“We’re certainly moving more seats into the Labor-lean category,” he said.

“We’re not calling that many yet in a final sense, but we are certainly, more aggressive than we were half an hour ago in the list of seats that we have, that we think we are a decent chance.”

Bowen said Dutton’s “radical and risky” plan to build nuclear reactors across Australia was to blame for his likely loss in his own electorate of Dickson.

“This was a policy that was never going to survive contact with reality,” he said.

“The Australian people have cast a very strong judgement on this.”

Bowen pointed to a poll that showed 47 per cent of voters in Dickson were less likely to vote for him because of the nuclear policy.

“Peter Dutton said it was a referendum on energy, which we were happy with and the way the results are flowing,” he said.

“The result of that referendum on energy, nuclear versus renewables, is crystal clear.”

Former Liberal Defence Minister Christopher Pyne attributed the likely loss to the unpopular work-from-home policy, which Dutton was forced to backflip on.

“Where the Liberal Party, I think, in this election has, in some respects lost its way, is the work from home announcement was very unpopular, pushed people away,” he said.

“The 41,000 public servants being sacked in Canberra doesn’t just resonate in Canberra, it resonates all across the country.”