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An asteroid that was considered the “most dangerous” last week now has almost a zero per cent chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.
After months of observations, scientists have now almost totally ruled out any threat from Asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) said on Tuesday.
The ESA has since lowered the odds of the asteroid striking Earth from 3.1 per cent down to 0.001 per cent.
And NASA has it down to 0.0017 per cent — meaning the asteroid will safely pass the Earth in 2032, and there is no threat of impact for the next century.
Paul Chodas, who heads NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, said there is no chance the odds will rise at this point and that an impact in 2032 has been ruled out.
“That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100 per cent sure that it would happen,” he said in an email.
But there is still a 1.7 per cent chance the asteroid could hit the moon on 22 December 2032, according to NASA.
Chodas expects the odds of a moon strike will also fade eventually.
The world’s telescopes will continue to track the asteroid as it heads away from the Earth, with the Webb Space Telescope zooming in next month to pinpoint its size.
It is expected to vanish from view in another month or two.
Tamara Davis, an astrophysics professor at The University of Queensland, earlier told SBS News Asteroid 2024 YR4 had been given “the second highest warning scale that we’ve ever had in our alert system for asteroids that might impact Earth”.
Discovered in December 2024, the asteroid is an estimated 40 metres to 90 metres across and swings our way every four years.
Davis described it as “a serious-sized object”.
“While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity” for study, NASA said in a statement.
