Mortgage holders throughout Australia might soon brace for the impact of an interest rate increase, as suggested by a recent survey of financial experts. The looming decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) comes in the wake of an unexpected inflation surge.

In the Finder Cash Rate Survey, over half of the 33 participating economists and financial analysts anticipate that the RBA will have no choice but to raise interest rates when it meets on Tuesday. This consensus stems from new inflation data revealing a significant rise in the trimmed mean—an inflation metric favored by the RBA—now at 3.3 percent. Additionally, headline inflation has soared to 3.8 percent over the past year, both figures significantly surpassing the central bank’s target range.

The survey results indicate that 17 experts, or 51 percent, predict the RBA will authorize a 0.25 percent increase in the cash rate, which would bring it to 3.85 percent. This forecast marks a notable shift from the sentiment expressed last December when a mere 9 percent of experts surveyed by Finder expected a rate hike in February.

The Finder research found 17 of those surveyed, or 51 per cent, believe the central bank will green-light a 0.25 per cent rise in the cash rate, raising it to 3.85 per cent.

This is a marked turnaround from last December when only 9 per cent of experts in a Finder survey forecast a February rates lift.

Head of Finder consumer research Graham Cooke says the big four banks and most economists are now backing a hike.

“This news will feel like a cold shower for homeowners after a brief reprieve.

“Many who refinanced or entered the market during the 2025 easing cycle may feel blindsided, as the pivot from falling to rising rates in just six months has created significant whiplash.”

Adding to the gloomy outlook, more than four in five experts who weighed in believe a rate cut in the next 12 months is unlikely.

Homeowners on the average home loan of $693,802 will see an annual increase of $1313 to their mortgage repayments if the RBA raises the cash rate by 0.25 per cent next Tuesday.

On a $1 million mortgage, the same hike would cost a homeowner nearly $1893 a year more in interest – a rise of $158.

A rates rise next week would be the first in Australia since November 2023, and would follow the RBA’s easing cycle that brought relief for mortgage holders. 

Cooke says mortgage they should now scrutinise their interest rate with the easing cycle unlikely to restart again soon.

“If your rate isn’t one of the best, now might be a good time to give yourself a rate cut. Many banks will also throw in some cash for your trouble.”

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