Muslim protest vote challenges Labor dominance in Watson electorate

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Mohammed Addas oscillates between despair for his homeland of Gaza, and disgust for the Australian government’s response to Israel’s war.

“The majority of my family are back home and [Albanese] has [to] accept Palestinians are human beings, we’re not animals”, the 31-year-old Palestinian Australian migrant told SBS News.

Since the Palestinian militant group Hamas’ deadly October 7 attack on Israel, more than 50,000 people have been killed in Gaza. Israel has been against Palestinians, although it has denied this.

Addas wants Australia to do more to stop the bloodshed, and the sentiment has gained great fervour in the south-west Sydney seat of Watson, where many voters like Addas are veering away from Labor for the first time in their lives.

A young man wearing a white t-shirt and black cap stands in front of shopfronts

Mohammed Addas told SBS News he wants Australia to do more to stop the bloodshed in Gaza. Source: SBS News

Watson is considered Labor heartland and has been held by the party since 1940.

It’s also the home of veteran frontbencher and current Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, who has been the federal member for more than 20 years. He retained the seat at the 2022 election with a 15 per cent margin.

He is one of a number of MPs facing a Muslim voter backlash in his electorate.

‘We’re going to hold you to account’

Across the electorate Dr Ziad Basyouny’s face can’t be missed.

Scores of the Egyptian-born GP’s corflutes have been erected by a team of around 300 volunteers, who have activated a major grassroots campaign to unseat Labor.

“The area has been neglected. Voices in Watson have been taken for granted … and they seek real change,” Basyouny, an independent, told SBS News.

Corflutes displayed above a medical clinic.

Campaign signs in the seat of Watson for independent candidate Ziad Basyouny. Source: SBS News

Basyouny has been endorsed by lobby groups The Muslim Vote (TMV) and Muslim Votes Matter (MVM), which are aiming to mobilise the Muslim vote for the first time during a federal election.

The groups have been born out of frustration over the major parties’ inaction on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

On its website, MVM states that Muslim votes will “no longer be taken for granted”.

Sheikh Wesam Charkawi, co-convenor of the TMV, said Arab and Muslim votes: “have been given for free for the last several decades”.

“Enough is enough. We want to seek out our own political trajectory for change. We hope that you learn the lesson. We’re going to hold you to account,” he told SBS News.

“If we take your seat and marginalise it, so be it. And if we unseat you — that’s even better.”

A man with a beard and wearing a white shirt and traditional headwear sits at a table in a park

Wesam Charkawi is the co-convenor of The Muslim Vote. Source: SBS News

‘Puppet to America’

But there are splinters in the Arab and Muslim vote.

Some Palestinians, who spoke to SBS News on the condition of anonymity, said they will still vote for Burke because a potential Coalition government risks slashing the private support and funding they have received under Labor.

Former butcher Mahamed Assoum said Labor’s track record on Gaza has been “appalling”.

I’m not going to say [Albanese] is a puppet to America … but in my opinion, I think he is.

“You’ve got a fairly multicultural population [here]. Tony [Burke] could have had all of them by his side, but I think he chose not to,” Assoum told SBS News.

But he said he’s still planning to vote for Burke come election day, preferring to support Labor over the Coalition’s pro-Israel policies.

A man in a black t-shirt holds a bottle of Coke and two pizzas.

Mahamed Assoum is critical of Labor’s track record on Gaza. Source: SBS News

The other side could be worse

Last year Australia voted for an end to “Israel’s unlawful presence in the Occupied Territories as rapidly as possible” as part of a , departing from its previous diplomatic position.

Amid calls to do more, Foreign Minister Penny Wong noted that Australia is “not the central player” in the conflict.

“What we can do is add our voice to calls for ceasefire, which we have done,” she told ABC Melbourne on 10 April.

“And I would just remind everyone that Peter Dutton opposed a ceasefire.”

Opposition leader Peter Dutton saying the Albanese government was chasing Green votes at the expense of the wellbeing of the Jewish community.

Since then since 7 October 2023. He will also reassess the need for the Islamophobia envoy, but would keep the antisemitism envoy.

“The Labor Party is pushing this narrative that the other side is worse,” Charkawi said.

If that’s the best that you have — that ‘the others are worse’ — what do you actually stand for then?

Sheppard said it appears Labor is hoping the split in opinion among the Muslim community will save its seats.

“[What] they seem to be banking on at the moment is that this group of voters isn’t completely unanimous in regard to how they will vote — that they might splinter off on other issues like cost of living,” she said.

Burke, who is the Minister for Home Affairs, did not respond to SBS News’ request for an interview. He told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing on Tuesday he is facing the “most aggressive campaign” he’s had in a while.

“No matter what you’re told your seat on paper, you always treat your seat as marginalised. I’ve always done that,” he said.

Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke has been the member for Watson since 2004. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas

His opponent Basyouny also has a mountain to climb. This was made harder last week after the Liberals preferenced Labor ahead of Basyouny on its how-to-vote cards.

Jill Sheppard, a politics lecturer at the Australian National University, said Basyouny needs at least a third of the primary vote to stand a real chance against Burke.

“One of the dirty secrets in Australian politics is that major parties often work together to exclude the Greens, independents and other minor candidates,” she told SBS News.

Greens could benefit from protest vote

The electorate of Wills in Melbourne’s north is another area being targeted by the Muslim groups.

The seat is held by Labor’s Peter Khalil, but both MVM and TMV are endorsing Greens candidate Samantha Ratnam, a former state Greens leader.

About 10 per cent of the population in Wills is Muslim, and Ratnam may well be the beneficiary of support from frustrated Muslim voters.

The Greens have staunch pro-Palestinian policies and have called for an end to the occupation of Palestinian territories.

The party appears to be taking advantage of the groundswell of support they’ve received from the Muslim community. Ratnam has described the fight for the seat as “the biggest campaign in Victorian Greens history”.

“It’s been incredible to see the Muslim community come together, exercise their power and say [that] they can vote for something different at this election,” she told SBS News.

Signs outside an early voting booth including one for Samantha Ratnam

Samantha Ratnam, Greens candidate for the Melbourne seat of Wills, has the support of both MVM and TMV. Source: AAP / Ye Myo Khant/SOPA Images/Sipa USA

The Australian Electoral Commission’s redistribution of Wills will also likely benefit the Greens.

New boundaries scoop up polling booths in the south that heavily voted Greens at the 2022 election.

Labor’s 8.6 per cent margin in 2022 is now predicted by ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green to be shaved to 4.6 per cent.

Khalil, who is Labor’s special envoy for social cohesion, has faced major heat with several protests and acts of vandalism outside his electoral office. He’s been accused of not being outspoken enough for Palestinian rights.

But he said he has always spoken in parliament for peace and could have more power to provide help to the vulnerable.

We’ve resettled a number of refugees in my elecorate … in fact I’ve helped some families get out of Gaza and worked with the foreign ministry to do that work and help resettle them.

Khalil describes the contest in Wills as between a member of a party of government “who can actually deliver outcomes for the community”, versus someone from a minor party who can “make lots promises but can never deliver on those promises”.

‘We’re just warming up’

The Victorian seat of Calwell, in Melbourne’s north-west is also under pressure.

One in four residents of the Labor seat are Muslim and both MVM and TMV are backing the independent candidate Samim Mosleh.

He will take on Labor’s first ever Palestinian candidate, Basem Abdo, who is replacing retiring Labor MP Maria Vamvakinou.

Abdo declined SBS News’ request for an interview.

Sheppard said the success of the Teals movement is “probably giving great energy to the Muslim vote”.

“In the prospect of a hung parliament, which is a very live option, that puts them in a great position of power,” she said.

“It will confront the major parties and gets them to speak about an issue they haven’t wanted to at all this election campaign.”

Even if the independents don’t win, Charkawi said the strategy was aimed always keep the major parties on their toes.

“This was never designed to be short-term and was only ever designed to be long-term. If we didn’t get you now, we’ll get you later,” he said.

Correction: An earlier version of this article stated that Labor was suggesting voters preference the Liberals ahead of Ziad Basyouny in the seat of Watson. This is incorrect.

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