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Newly released footage, analyzed by a leading investigative team, appears to reveal an American Tomahawk missile striking a compound in southern Iran, mere meters from a school where a tragic explosion claimed over 165 lives at the onset of the current Middle Eastern conflict.
The evidence is increasingly pointing towards U.S. involvement in the February 28 attack, which targeted a school adjacent to a Revolutionary Guard installation in Minab, located in Iran’s southern Hormozgan Province. According to experts consulted by The Associated Press, who conducted a thorough satellite image analysis, the school was likely hit during a rapid series of bombings on the compound.
An anonymous U.S. official, knowledgeable about the internal discussions regarding the incident, informed the AP that the missile strike was probably American. The official requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information and their lack of authorization to speak on the record.
The newly surfaced footage, initially examined by the investigative organization Bellingcat, was recorded on the day of the strike. It was shared on Sunday by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency. The video captures a missile impacting a structure, leading to a thick cloud of smoke rising into the air.
The Associated Press successfully geolocated the video, confirming it was filmed from a location next to the school, with smoke already visible in the area. Satellite imagery of the compound matches details seen in the video, such as a flat-roofed building, power lines, and nearby vehicles.
Trevor Ball, a Bellingcat researcher, identified the munition as a Tomahawk cruise missile — which only the US is known to possess in this war. It’s the first evidence of a munition used in the strike.
US Central Command has acknowledged using Tomahawk missiles in this war and even released a photo of the USS Spruance, part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier group located within range of the school, firing a Tomahawk missile on February 28.
Bellingcat said the footage “appears to contradict” US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible for the deadly school blast. Neither the US military’s Central Command nor the Israeli military immediately replied to requests for comment from the AP.
When asked by a reporter on Saturday whether the US was responsible for the blast, which killed mostly children, Trump responded, without providing evidence: “No, in my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” Trump added that Iran is “very inaccurate” with its munitions. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth quickly chimed in to say the US was investigating.
Several other factors point to a US strike.
One is the launching of an assessment of the incident by the US military. According to the Pentagon’s instructions on processes for mitigating civilian harm, an assessment is launched after a group of investigators make an initial determination that the US military may bear culpability.
Another is the location of the school — next to the Revolutionary Guard base and close to barracks for a naval unit. The US military has focused on naval targets and acknowledged strikes in the province, including one in the vicinity of the school. Israel, which has denied conducting the strike, has focused on areas of Iran closer to Israel and hasn’t reported any strikes south of Isfahan, 800 kilometres away.
Complicating any assessment of the incident is the lack of images of bomb fragments from the blast. No independent agency has reached the site during the war to investigate.
Janina Dill, an expert on international law at Oxford University, wrote on X that even if the strike was a misidentification — and the attacker believed that the school had been a part of the neighboring IRGC base — it would still be “a very serious violation of international law”.
“Attackers are under an obligation to do everything feasible to verify the status of targeted object,” she wrote.
The Trump administration, however, strikes a different tone on international humanitarian law.
Speaking about the US operation at a press conference March 2, Hegseth said: “America, regardless of what so-called international institutions say, is unleashing the most lethal and precise air power campaign in history.”
“No stupid rules of engagement,” he said. “No politically correct wars. We fight to win, and we don’t waste time or lives.”
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