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Warmer nights, increased rainfall and unusually high temperatures are being predicted for March through to May.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) long-range forecast uses millions of satellites and instruments on land and at sea to estimate weather patterns months in advance.
The BoM’s modelling suggests above-average rainfall in all parts of Australia’s east coast as well as warmer-than-average days and nights across the country.
Rainfall looks to be above average for northern Australia, east coast
Northern Australia and parts of the NSW and Victorian eastern coastal regions can expect rainfall to be above average compared to previous years.
The Northern Territory could be particularly wet, with an increased chance of unusually high rainfall across the Top End.
However, the BoM is forecasting average rainfall for the southern half of Australia from March through May.
Warmer days and nights could be on the way
There’s a good chance most of Australia will experience warmer temperatures in the coming months.
Tasmania, south-east Queensland and NSW are the most likely states to experience unusually high maximum temperatures.
Minimum temperatures are also expected be higher across the county than in past forecasts.
Parts of western Western Australia, the far tropical north and south-eastern Queensland are the most likely to see uncharacteristically high minimum temperatures.
Sea surface temperatures and other factors
The BoM has also looked at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Australia’s coastline.
SSTs in January were the warmest on record for the month since observations began in 1900, with recent analysis showing WA’s coastal waters were particularly hot.
This ocean warming can contribute to “increased atmospheric moisture and energy, and may influence the severity of weather systems”, the BoMs forecast explained.
Weather forecasting models also look at the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole climate patterns to make predictions on ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure.
But the BoM says both models appear to be neutral and have little association with the Australian climate in this forecast.
