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More Australians will likely die from heat-related issues and millions are at risk of coastal flooding driven by climate change, according to a major body of new research released by the federal government.
The National Climate Risk Assessment, released on Monday, shows no Australian community will be immune from climate risks that it said will be “cascading, compounding and concurrent”.
Hazards such as coastal floods, heatwaves, droughts and bushfires are projected to occur more frequently, more severely, and often at the same time, with the report warning Australia — a land mass that warms much faster than oceans — will “reach a given warming level much faster than the globe”.

Setting out the findings on Monday, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said: “Cascading — it will get worse over time. Compounding — each impact of climate change will make another impact worse. And concurrent — communities will suffer the impacts of climate change in different ways, at the same time”.

A firefighter directing a hose towards a bushfire.

The landmark report finds Australia will experience climate hazards more frequently, more severely, and often at the same time. Source: Getty / Roni Bintang

“There isn’t an Australian community that isn’t impacted by climate change going forward. And there isn’t an Australian individual for whom those impacts won’t be real and material,” he added.

It comes as Australia’s highly anticipated 2035 emissions reduction target is expected to be revealed in the coming days.

Who is most at risk — and where?

The assessment has drawn on work by the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia.
It models the likely impacts of climate-related hazards by 2050 and 2090 under three global warming levels: above 1.5C, 2C and 3C.

It states warming across the Australian continent has already reached 1.5C.
Australia is likely to experience more intense and extreme climate hazards — in some cases where people and places haven’t experienced them before.
Climate science indicates future extreme weather will likely differ from the past, meaning historical observations “are not likely to be a good indicator of future risk”.
Individuals and households who are already disadvantaged will be the most vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people will experience unique impacts, the report says, while extreme heat, bushfires and poor air quality will escalate risks for those with pre-existing health conditions, including mental ill heath.

Northern Australia, remote communities and outer suburbs are particularly susceptible, which it said will place a strain on health and well being, emergency services, critical infrastructure and primary industries.

Coastal flooding, cyclones, bushfires and storms

Extreme temperatures are likely to rise across the country, with the greatest increases over Northern Australia, the Great Dividing Range in the south-east and in desert regions.
Several heatwave events are projected to double if global warming reaches 2C, and more than quadruple under 3C in warming.

Higher temperatures and drier conditions will also increase the risk of bushfires in most currently forested areas, while some areas moving to grassland may see less intensity. However, dangerous fire days are projected to become more frequent in southern and eastern Australia, with a longer fire season and “the potential for more megafires”.
A table showing climate change impacts in capital cities.

The climate assessment projects impacts of global warming scenarios on flooding and heatwaves. Source: SBS News

Oceans surrounding Australia are expected to become warmer and more acidic, which will lead to more frequent and longer marine heatwaves, and a higher chance of coral bleaching.

Sea levels will continue to rise, with a “median projection” of half a metre by the end of the century. Coastal flood events are projected to become more frequent as a result, which will significantly impact coastal communities and cities.
The number of coastal communities located in high and very high risk areas is projected to increase across the country.

This would equate to more than 1.5 million people living in areas that will experience sea level rise and coastal flooding risks by 2050 — and as many as three million people by 2090.

Tropical cyclones are forecast to hit Australia less often, but there is a possibility they will become more severe and shift slightly farther south.
Some of the national forecasts are also highly uncertain.

Under 3C of warming, the amount of time spent in drought, for example, is given a range spanning from a 15 per cent reduction to an 89 per cent increase.

Health risks and heat-related deaths

The report projects increases in extreme heat and heatwaves will increase health risks and heat-related deaths.
“Public health risks will become more pronounced,with a significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems,” it says.

While the relationship between increased heat and related deaths is “not linear”, modelling suggests an increase of 444 per cent for Sydney and 423 per cent for Darwin, under 3C of warming.

A table showing climate change impacts

Heat-related deaths are expected to surge in some capital cities. Source: SBS News

Deaths attributed to climate change and bushfire smoke will also likely increase.

“The mental and physical well being of communities will continue to deteriorate due to climate impacts, especially among those already disadvantaged,” the report says.

Property values and insurance costs

The ripple effects of these climate risks are far-reaching across sectors — from increased insurance costs to losses in property value and impacted supply chains.
Losses from declared insurance catastrophes have already grown from 0.2 to 0.7 per cent of GDP ($2.1 to $4.5 billion) in 1995-2000 to 2020-2024.

The report projects disaster costs to total an annual cost of $40.3 billion in 2049-2050.
Average government spending on disaster recovery could be five times higher by 2090, under a 2C warming scenario, and 7.2 times under sub 4C.

Losses in Australian property values could balloon to $611 billion by 2050, and $770 billion by 2090 if little effort was made to adapt and relocate to lower-risk locations.

Findings ‘should keep ministers up at night’

“One thing that is very clear from this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake — that every Australian, regardless of where they live, has a lot at stake,” Bowen said on Monday.
He said the path to net zero “is important”, with climate change being a “live reality”.
Bowen confirmed he had received advice from the independent Climate Change Authority regarding the government’s 2035 target — guidance it must consider before setting its goals.
“At a time when the political debate is focused on the costs of action – both real and imagined – this report is a reminder, if we needed one ever, that the cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action,” he said.
“It’s too late to avoid any impacts. But it’s not too late to avoid the worst of the impacts.”

However, Bowen also pointed to the “economic dividend” of climate action, saying: “If we get it right, the opportunity for our country is enormous— just as the risk, if we get it wrong, is very real”.

Climate Council chief executive officer Amanda McKenzie said the findings “should keep ministers up at night”.
“The first step is legislating the strongest possible 2035 climate target and stopping new polluting projects.”
Greens leader Larissa Waters said the revelations in the report are “chilling” and a “wake-up call for Labor” ahead of the government’s 2035 climate decision.
“If Labor fails to set a science-based climate target then it’s crystal clear: they have utterly prioritised coal and gas profits at the expense of community safety and nature,” Waters said.
The government has also released the National Adaptation Plan — a separate report outlining how Australia can mitigate some of the risks posed by global warming.
But it warns some risks, such as sea level rises, are unavoidable and Australians will have to learn to live with the change.
— With additional reporting from the Australian Associated Press
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