The Coalition’s internal struggles and public disagreements have left it struggling in the polls, while an often-overlooked party is quietly benefiting from the chaos. This party has gained traction with a “laser-focused” approach, appealing to voters who feel disenchanted with the current situation.

According to the latest Resolve poll conducted for Nine’s newspapers, the Coalition managed to climb by two percentage points, reaching a primary vote of 29 percent after hitting a low of 27 percent in September.

In contrast, One Nation has maintained a steady support rate at 12 percent, which marks their highest standing since the federal election.

Jim Reed from Resolve explained that voters are turning away from the Coalition in favor of One Nation, largely because Opposition Leader Sussan Ley has not successfully addressed foundational issues amidst ongoing disputes over net-zero policies. Additionally, Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce’s consideration of a switch to One Nation hasn’t helped the Coalition’s image.

“The perception is that the Coalition is disjointed and self-absorbed,” Reed told 9news.com.au. “They need to focus on solidifying their leadership, presenting a united front, effectively challenging Labor, and offering a compelling alternative policy package.”

“One Nation’s vote is at its highest point now, and it’s mostly come from the Coalition, mainly because they’re acting like an opposition.

“They’re highlighting government weaknesses that are relevant to people in immigration and energy policy, and prosecuting the case for a different path.”

The Coalition’s failure to reach an agreement has brought Ley’s leadership into question from her own party members, forcing Angus Taylor to deny growing speculation that he would challenge her position. 

Joyce is considering leaving the Nationals for One Nation, after citing policy differences and his strong opposition to net-zero, threatening to take some voters with him.

Hanson has invited him over, saying he is more aligned with her right-wing party than the Nationals.

Monash University’s head of politics, Associate Professor Zareh Ghazarian, said voters are no longer apprehensive about supporting non-major party candidates if they sense division and disunity.

“The Liberal Party seems to be really struggling with what it wants to be in Australian politics,” he said. 

“You’ve got other parties, for example, like One Nation, which I think has become more prominent because they’ve got a very laser-focused policy agenda, and people know what that party is seeking to achieve in a policy sense.”

Analysts and politicians alike have long recognised a shift in voter sentiment away from the major parties towards minor parties like the Greens and One Nation, and independents.

Together, the minor parties and independents have 20 seats in the Senate, not far behind the Coalition at 27 and Labor at 29.

The story is a little different in the House of Representatives, where Labor has a commanding majority.

But 10 independents retained their seats in the House in this year’s federal election, continuing to solidify themselves as legitimate alternatives.

They played a significant role in the 2022 federal election, snatching several once-safe Liberal seats and helping create the largest crossbench in Australian history.

Ghazarian said some voters believe minor parties and independents can be more effective at representing clear policy concerns rather than Labor and the Coalition.

“There is fragility. There is a bit of brittleness within the party system and within the electoral system, as in voter preferences,” he said.

“And it is a warning to the major parties that they must work very hard to maintain the support that they have and to potentially build on it.

“Otherwise, we’re seeing that voters are very happy to support non-major party candidates.”

But Reed warned that major parties still take the lion’s share of the primary vote, with Labor at 33 per cent and the Coalition at 29 per cent, leaving the centre as the place where elections are won and lost. 

“We’ve got to remember that One Nation is still very much a minor party and that the likes of Hanson and Joyce are still not well-liked, but they are effectively appealing to a minority and making gains because of that,” he said.