One Nation’s Win in Farrer: A Turning Point for the Coalition’s Future?

After nearly eight decades of steadfast support for the Coalition, the constituents of Farrer have dramatically shifted their allegiance, marking a potential turning point in Australian political dynamics.

In a surprising move on Saturday, voters in this regional New South Wales seat elected David Farley of One Nation to represent them in the federal parliament. This victory marks the first time Pauline Hanson’s right-wing party has secured a lower house seat.

David Farley, a 69-year-old expert in agribusiness, focused his campaign on crucial issues such as water reform, the rising cost of living in regional areas, and a strong anti-establishment message. He emerged victorious with 39.4 percent of the primary vote, surpassing Climate-200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe, who garnered 28.4 percent.

The Liberal party’s support dramatically dwindled, as candidate Raissa Butkowski managed to secure only 12.4 percent of the votes, reflecting a 31 percent drop in their primary vote.

In the two-candidate-preferred tally, One Nation achieved 57.3 percent, surpassing the margin previously attained by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley in the 2025 federal election.

Ley, who had held the seat for 25 years, triggered the by-election by resigning from parliament after she was ousted as party leader by Angus Taylor in February.

The result was seen as an ominous sign for the Coalition, which has struggled to regain its footing following its resounding 2025 federal election loss, multiple internal leadership changes and two splits in the National-Liberal coalition agreement.

Farley, speaking to cheering supporters on Saturday night, said One Nation had “reached the end of its beginning”.

“We’re going through the ceiling from here,” he added, while Hanson said the party was “coming after those other seats”.

Analysts have cautioned that by-elections can amplify protest voting and do not always translate directly to general election outcomes.

Even so, it was an historic result in a race that was widely viewed as a barometer for One Nation’s ability to translate its year-long surge in the polls to electoral success.

Now that it’s done so — what does it mean for the future of Australian politics?

‘An absolute repudiation of the Coalition’

Saturday’s result reflects an “absolute repudiation of the Coalition”, according to Benjamin Moffitt, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Monash University.

“And at the same time, One Nation is clearly ascendant,” he told SBS News.

Moffitt said the swings against the Coalition appeared to go directly to One Nation — with a 33 per cent swing to One Nation, and 31 per cent away from the Coalition.

“In other words, there’s no mystery what’s going on here: a whole block of voters have said they’re sick of the Coalition, and they’re going to put their vote, at least in this by-election’s case, towards One Nation.”

John Wanna, emeritus professor in political science at Australian National University, told SBS News One Nation’s victory represented far more than just a protest vote.

“I think there is a grassroots revolt against the established parties,” he said.

The Coalition’s decision to preference One Nation ahead of other candidates in Farrer drew scrutiny during the campaign and intensified after the party’s strong result.

Speaking on ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday morning, shadow treasurer Tim Wilson repeatedly declined to say whether preferencing One Nation in Farrer had been the wrong decision.

Insiders host David Speers noted that in 2019, Wilson said One Nation and its “despicable acolytes” should be placed last on Liberal how-to-vote cards.

“I think that the clear message from this is that voters wanted to send a really clear message,” Wilson said.

“Our job is to listen to that message, to hear it and to understand how we have to be better if we want to regain their trust.”

Taylor said on Saturday night he would be focusing on fixing what he called an “existential situation for the Coalition”.

A Coalition with One Nation?

Asked about the possibility of forming government with One Nation in future, Wilson — a member of the Liberal Party’s moderate faction — did not rule it out.

Moffitt said the comments reflect the scale of concern within the Coalition.

“When a leading ‘moderate’ in the party … is saying this, [this tells you] how bad it is for them,” Moffitt said.

“It tells you that they’re panicking. Their internal polling must be absolutely dire.”

But an arrangement between the Liberal party and One Nation would present significant logistical and ideological challenges, he said.

“If the Coalition is going to work with One Nation in some kind of formal, even semi-formal arrangement, that is going to shift politics even further to the right in this country,” he said.

“I think that’s going to be a relatively unhappy marriage.”

The rise of One Nation

One Nation has now translated its growing support into federal electoral success, after previously making gains at the South Australian state election.

Its breakthrough in Farrer was described by some analysts as a clear sign of populist politics taking hold in Australia.

While the result mirrors the rise of populist movements overseas, Moffitt said what was striking was how long it had taken for One Nation to achieve a breakthrough.

He argued many of the economic and social conditions that have fuelled populist movements internationally — which include cost-of-living pressures and declining trust in institutions — had existed in Australia for years, and One Nation itself has been around for nearly three decades.

“What’s weird is that it’s taken this long,” he said.

In his view, the Coalition’s support collapsed relatively quickly, and One Nation was in the right place at the right time and has now built significant momentum.

“Money is now flowing towards them. So this is kind of self-perpetuating in some sense, and more money will flow to them as they start to look more like a viable electoral vehicle.”

With its victory in Farrer, One Nation now holds six seats across the federal parliament, including two in the lower house alongside former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce, who defected in December.

Farrer voters frustrated with political establishment

Voters in Farrer expressed frustration over rising cost-of-living pressures, housing, water policy, healthcare and a sense that regional communities were being neglected or left behind by the political establishment.

“These are communities that have watched the jobs go. They’ve watched their health services erode. Their mental health services in these communities are diabolical, if they even exist,” said Simon Welsh, director of research and reputation at polling company Redbridge.

“These are communities that feel hollowed out, and they feel like these things have been done to them by the institutions and the people with power.”

This sentiment has been brewing for years, Welsh told SBS News, but the Farrer by-election created an opening for voters to support viable alternatives.

Welsh said the result reflects a growing belief among voters that minor party and outsider candidates are both capable of winning and more willing to champion their concerns in parliament.

What does this mean for Labor?

The result may also carry implications for the Labor Party.

Labor did not run a candidate in Farrer, a decision that Welsh said likely benefited Milthorpe by helping to consolidate parts of the progressive primary vote.

But he said competing with One Nation for anti-establishment voters posed a major challenge for Milthorpe.

Her association with climate-focused “teal” politics didn’t resonate with many conservative voters, he added, while dissatisfaction in regional communities extends to both major parties.

Moffitt said the broader implications for Labor are still difficult to interpret.

“I would suspect in Labor HQ, they’re looking at this with mixed feelings,” he said.

“This could, in some ways, be the beginning of the end for their central competitor. But if One Nation take the place of the main right-wing party in Australia, that opens up a whole other set of issues.”

— With additional reporting by Naveen Razik

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