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The rising influence of One Nation presents a significant challenge for the Coalition, but according to Jill Sheppard, a politics lecturer at the Australian National University (ANU), Pauline Hanson still faces a critical political hurdle. Despite decades in the political arena as a far-right fringe party, One Nation has yet to overcome this obstacle.
“Historically, they have struggled to develop a comprehensive policy platform,” Sheppard remarked. “On paper, they still lack the foundation necessary to position themselves as a party ready to govern. Meanwhile, the Coalition has a two-year window to regroup and realign its strategies, should it choose to do so.”
Another significant challenge lies in the potential alliance, or lack thereof, between Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson. Their ability to collaborate effectively could prove pivotal.
There is also concern within the Coalition that the trend of MPs considering a shift toward One Nation could gain momentum, sparking further instability within the ranks.
There are also fears among Coalition ranks that other MPs will follow suit.
“That should bolster their brand,” Sheppard said.
“But I think as a day-to-day concern, it makes life inside One Nation probably more difficult.”
“I think there’s going to be personality issues between Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson. How he gets along with Pauline Hanson, I think, will dictate how many others follow.”
The Coalition has plenty of time to patch up its recent divorce before Australians revisit the ballot box in 2028.
Over the next two years, Hanson may need to make a decision: is One Nation a personality party or one built on strong policy?
The skyrocketing voter support for One Nation could incite a cultural shift inside the house that Hanson built, Sheppard said.
“At the moment, they seem to be doing better when she’s keeping a lower profile,” she added.
“That presents a series of challenging questions for One Nation about what kind of party they want to be going forward.
“Do you become less personality-based entirely and more like a traditional Liberal or Labor party? And if you do that, do you lose that agility and the intrigue that is helping One Nation in the polls at the moment?”
Sheppard suggests Hanson has undergone a reputation rehabilitation with younger voters, who aren’t familiar with her policy history.
She said reputations can be “laundered” amid loud political noise.
This could be the momentum One Nation is looking for and may be the key to it one day joining a major party – or even becoming the Opposition.
“They only have an idea of Pauline Hanson as someone who’s talking about, for instance, immigration and house prices at a time when both major parties have assiduously tried to avoid making that connection,” Sheppard said.
“For a lot of voters, that’s what they want to hear.
“They want to hear simple answers, and without the stain of Pauline Hanson’s reputation, One Nation is the only party that’s doing that at the moment.”
Deputy Liberal leader Ted O’Brien said while the research shows voters are fed up with the main parties, it was too early to call a major sea change in Australian parties.
“People aren’t happy, with the two major parties… they can’t be ignored,” he told Today this morning.
“But at the same time we must be careful not to overly rely on them. It would have been around about this time last year that the polls had the Coalition winning the election.
“That didn’t go too well.”
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