It might be Carney vs Poilievre, but Trump is unofficially on the ballot
Share and Follow

The US president’s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st state have infuriated Canadians and led to a surge in nationalism that has helped the Liberal Party flip the narrative heading into Monday’s parliamentary election, at least in opinion polls.

“Trump is the campaign,” former Quebec Premier Jean Charest said.

People hold a large Canadian flag during a rally in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, March 9, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP File)

“The ballot question is who is the person we are going to choose to face Trump. Everything has changed.”

Foreign policy hasn’t affected a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States dominated the political discourse.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal leader who was sworn in on March 14 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, led in the polls heading into Monday, marking a dramatic turnaround for a party that seemed destined for a crushing defeat until Trump started launching broadsides at Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

“We are in a crisis. President Trump is threatening Canada, he’s threatening our companies, he’s threatening our workers, he’s threatening the savings of our retirees,” Carney said on Tuesday.

“This threat is not only an economic threat, it is an existential threat.”

Until a few months ago, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was seen as a shoo-in to become the next prime minister by shepherding his opposition faction back into power for the first time in a decade.

Trump’s tough talk could hurt his ideological allies abroad

Prime Minister Mark Carney takes questions from the media in Saanichton, British Columbia, Canada, April 7, 2025. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP File)
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre arrives at Kelowna International Airport, in Kelowna, BC, April 4, 2025. (The Canadian Press via AP File)

Charest, a moderate who led Canada’s French-speaking province from 2003-2012, said if Trump wants to help his ideological allies abroad, he needs to tone down the bluster.

“At what point are the Trump folks going to think this thing through and measure what are the consequences?” Charest said.

“In the White House, they should sit down and think about the effect Trump has in the world,” he added.

Carney has accused Trump of severing the close relationship that Canada and the US long enjoyed.

Poilievre, meanwhile, would be “very much in sync” with the “new direction in America”, said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a Conservative ally.

As such, Poilievre has offered a more muted response to Trump’s rhetoric and economic manoeuvring, imploring Canadians to deny the Liberals a fourth-straight term after what he described as “a lost Liberal decade.”

People rally in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, March 9, 2025. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press via AP File)

What will the result of Canada’s election mean for the US?

Trump has threatened to slap steep tariffs on Canadian goods, and both Carney and Poilievre said that, if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of the countries’ free trade deal in an effort to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.

Carney plans to diversify Canada’s exports and is reviewing the remaining purchase order of US F-35 fighter jets to see if there are other options “given the changing environment”. Carney visited Paris and London, not Washington, for his first trips as prime minister.

But almost 80 per cent of Canada’s exports go to the US.

“Let’s be honest, if Canada does a remarkable job — a remarkable job — of diversifying trade, what is that going to look like?” said former Foreign Minister John Baird, noting that even shifting 3 per cent – 5 per cent over five years would be quite an achievement.

“Let’s keep our eye on the main ball. They are 78 per cent of our customers so we need to tackle that challenge,” said Baird, a Conservative who works as a senior adviser at a law firm.

Box trucks cross the Ambassador Bridge entering the United States from Canada, as seen from Detroit, February 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

In a mid-January poll by Nanos, Liberals trailed the Conservative Party by 47 per cent to 20 per cent.

In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 26, the Liberals led by 4 percentage points nationally and 6 points in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, which has 122 of the 343 seats in Parliament.

The January poll had a margin of error 3.1 points, while the latest poll had a 2.7-point error margin.

Share and Follow
You May Also Like
Gunman 'neutralised' after police officer, civilians shot in Manhattan

Shooter Subdued After Police Officer and Civilians Are Wounded in Manhattan

A gunman is believed to be dead after shooting one New York…

“Refugees Urge Australian Government to End 13-Year Policy Stalemate”

A group of refugees who say they’ve been living in limbo in…

Cambodia refutes Thailand’s ceasefire violation claims; citizens optimistic for peace

A shaky ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia appeared to be holding Tuesday,…
Generic scenes of Commonwealth Bank of Australia logo and words, CBA, Banking, office buildings. Monday 13th Janusry 2025 AFR photo Louie Douvis

AI Responsible for Job Cuts at Commonwealth Bank

Australia’s biggest bank has cut 45 call centre jobs after rolling out…
Landmark genetic study aims to find root cause of debilitating disease

Breakthrough Genetic Research Seeks to Uncover Source of Crippling Illness

Australian researchers are launching a landmark study to identify the genetic cause…
"Worst of the worst" couple jailed after planning sex attacks on children

“Couple Sentenced to Prison for Plotting Child Abuse Crimes”

A Welsh couple who dubbed themselves ‘Bonnie and Clyde’ have been jailed…
US President Donald Trump

Trump Concludes Scotland Trip with Inauguration of New Golf Course

Golf and Scotland are close to US President Donald Trump‘s heart, and…
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer

UK Prime Minister Considers Recognizing Palestinian State If Israel Does Not Agree to Ceasefire

The UK will recognise a Palestinian state in September unless Israel agrees…