Potential Outcomes of a Different Strategy for the Future of Gaza

Share and Follow

Arab nations have backed an Egyptian plan to rebuild Gaza, rejecting an earlier proposal from United States President Donald Trump that was condemned by Palestinians and most world leaders.

on Tuesday while hosting an Arab League summit in Cairo.

It counters , which would include forcibly displacing its population to neighbouring countries including Egypt and Jordan and turning the war-torn enclave into a “Riviera of the Middle East”.

Here’s what we know so far about Egypt’s reconstruction plan and how it’s been received.

What is Egypt’s plan to rebuild Gaza?

An estimated 51 million tonnes of rubble blankets Gaza, with over 60 per cent of homes and 65 per cent of roads destroyed since the escalated in October 2023, according to the latest figures from the United Nations.

Under Egypt’s plan, the first phase of reconstruction efforts would last six months and focus on “removing mines and unexploded ordnance, clearing debris and providing temporary housing”.

Seven designated sites would be set up across Gaza to provide more than 1.5 million displaced people with temporary housing, while initial repairs would also be made to 60,000 partially damaged homes.

The temporary housing units and repaired homes would each accommodate an average of six people.

Then the reconstruction phase, which would take place in two stages over four and a half years, would begin.

The aim of the first stage would be rebuilding essential infrastructure, including roads, utility networks, and public service facilities.

Some 200,000 permanent housing units would also be built for 1.6 million people to live in, and over 8,000 hectares of land would be reclaimed.

The focus of the second stage would be to build a further 200,000 housing units, complete infrastructure projects, and establish industrial zones, an airport, a fishing port, and a commercial seaport.

How much will rebuilding Gaza cost and who’s paying for it?

Overall, Egypt’s proposal would require US$53 billion ($84.7 billion) of funding.

The first six-month rebuild phase is estimated to cost US$3 billion ($4.7 billion).

The first stage of the reconstruction phase has a proposed budget of $20 billion, while the second stage’s is $30 billion.

The creation of an internationally-supervised trust fund to ensure efficient and sustainable funding, as well as transparency and oversight, is included in the plan.

Egypt will host a conference to secure funds to execute its plan, bringing together donor countries, international and regional financial institutions, the private sector, and civil society groups.

Given the significant amount of money needed to fund the reconstruction efforts, a heavy buy-in from oil-rich Gulf Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia would be required.

Who will govern Gaza?

Under Egypt’s plan, an administrative committee of independent, professional Palestinian technocrats would manage the territory during a six-month transitional period.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said his government had worked in cooperation with Palestinians to create the committee, which would be responsible for the oversight of humanitarian aid and managing Gaza’s affairs.

He said it was aimed at “paving the way for the return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Strip” after it was ousted by militant group Hamas in 2007.

PA president Mahmoud Abbas, who has been in power since 2005, said presidential and legislative elections could be held in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem next year if “appropriate conditions” were met.

Two men in black suits greet each other and shake hands.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi (right) greeted Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (left) during Tuesday’s Arab League summit. Source: AAP / Egyptian Presidency Media Office

Egypt’s plan acknowledged the challenge posed by militant groups in Gaza, like Hamas, but didn’t explicitly state if they would be forced to disarm.

Some Arab states want Hamas to be completely dismantled, while others believe that decision should be left up to Palestinians.

On the security front, Egypt and Jordan will train PA-affiliated forces to serve as police officers in Gaza.

There’s also the prospect of an international presence in the Palestinian territories, including a possible UN Security Council resolution to deploy peacekeeping or protection forces in Gaza and the West Bank.

What has the reaction to Egypt’s plan been?

UN secretary-general António Guterres backed the plan, saying the intergovernmental organisation was prepared to “fully cooperate”.

“The true foundation of recovery in Gaza will be more than concrete and steel,” he said.

“It will be dignity, self-determination and security. This means staying true to the bedrock of international law. It means rejecting any form of ethnic cleansing. And it means forging a political solution.”

Hamas also welcomed Egypt’s plan, but said it would have to give its consent to the tasks, members and agenda of the temporary administrative committee.

“We value the Arab stance rejecting the attempts to displace our people,” it said.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri rejected ongoing Israeli and US calls for the group to disarm, saying its right to resist was not negotiable.

He told Reuters that Hamas would not accept any attempt to impose projects, or any form of non-Palestinian administration or the presence of foreign forces.

Israel, which has rejected the PA and Hamas having any role in Gaza’s future governance, reiterated its support for Trump’s plan, saying Arab leaders had rejected it without giving it a chance.

In a statement, Israel’s foreign ministry described Egypt’s proposal as “rooted in outdated perspectives”.

“If they are going to get Hamas to agree to demilitarise, it needs to be immediately. Nothing else will be acceptable,” an Israeli official told Reuters.

When asked whether Trump would support the Egypt-led plan, White House spokesperson Brian Hughes said: “The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance.”

“President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas.”

— With additional reporting by Agence France-Presse and Reuters news agency