Independent researcher Roy Morgan said their latest polling, conducted from March 3 to March 9, showed a federal election held now would yield 51.5 per cent of the vote to Labor and 48.5 per cent to the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.

That’s a two per cent gain for Labor and a two per cent loss for the Coalition on the previous poll.

But on these results, both major parties would require the support of minor parties or independents to form a government, though Roy Morgan said Labor’s chances would be favoured.

The Coalition primary vote dipped three per cent to 37 per cent, while Labor’s increased 1.5 per cent to 30 per cent, while the primary Greens vote was unchanged at 13.5 per cent.

One Nation increased its support to five per cent, “other parties” support rose to four per cent, and support for Independents was unchanged at 10.5 per cent.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said factors in the polling included the approach of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, and the circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese warships, as well as ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Often in times of international unrest and uncertainty, and natural disasters, there is a rise in support for the incumbent government – and this was a clear factor during the early days of the COVID pandemic,” Levine said.

“This week there were significant swings to the Albanese government in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania that drove the overall result in favour of the ALP.”

How has ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred impacted the election date?

April 12 had long been mooted as the most likely date for the election because it was a Goldilocks weekend: late enough that the federal campaign wouldn’t overlap with the WA state election, but early enough that it would avoid the Easter and Anzac Day long weekends, as well as the need to hold an early budget.

However, Cyclone Alfred put Albanese in a difficult position.

Elections are traditionally announced on Sundays in Australia, and the last Sunday an April 12 election could have been called was March 9, as law requires at least 33 days between the election being called and held.

But that would have required the prime minister to leave Brisbane while communities in south-east Queensland and northern NSW were inundated with floods – hardly a vote-winning move – as he has to be in Canberra to call the vote.

As such, as Alfred inched towards the coast on Friday night, Albanese made it clear he would not be calling the election for April 12, saying “that’s correct” when asked by the ABC’s 7.30 if he was “categorically ruling out an election being called Sunday or Monday”.

“I have no intention of doing anything that distracts from what we need to do,” he said.

“And what we need to do is to look after each other at this difficult time. This is not a time for looking at politics.”

So when will the election be held?

The problem is, the two options immediately after April 12 are a no-go, as they’re both long weekends. April 19 falls in the middle of Easter, while April 26 is the day after Anzac Day.

That leaves only three possible dates: May 3, May 10 and May 17.