'Scientists issue strong caution' regarding the hottest year on record surpassing the Paris Agreement limits

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Europe’s climate monitor says average global temperatures exceeded a critical warning limit for the first time, as the United Nations demands “trail-blazing” climate action.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday that six international datasets all confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, extending a decade-long “extraordinary streak of record-breaking temperatures”.

The WMO’s analysis of the six datasets showed global average surface temperatures were 1.55C above pre-industrial levels.

“This means that we have likely just experienced the first calendar year with a global mean temperature of more than 1.5C above the [year] 1850-1900 average,” it said.

While this does not mean the internationally agreed 1.5C warming threshold has been permanently breached, the UN warned it was in “grave danger”.

People walking with an umbrella near the Parthenon in central Athens.

Europe’s climate monitor Copernicus was one of the groups that found last year exceeded the warming limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. Source: AAP, AP / Petros Giannakouris

Europe’s climate monitor Copernicus, which provided one of the datasets the WMO analysed, found that both of the past two years had exceeded the warming limit set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Global temperatures had soared “beyond what modern humans have ever experienced”, it said.

Scientists stressed that the 1.5C threshold in the Paris Agreement refers to a sustained rise over decades, offering a glimmer of hope.

Still, Johan Rockstrom of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research called the milestone a “stark warning sign”.

“We have now experienced the first taste of a 1.5C world, which has cost people and the global economy unprecedented suffering and economic costs,” he told Agence France-Presse.

‘Trail-blazing climate action’ required, UN says

“Today’s assessment from the World Meteorological Organization is clear,” UN chief António Guterres said.

“Global heating is a cold, hard fact.”

He added: “Blazing temperatures in 2024 require trail-blazing climate action in 2025. There’s still time to avoid the worst of climate catastrophe. But leaders must act — now.”

The United States became the latest country to report its heat record had been shattered, capping a year marked by devastating tornadoes and hurricanes.

The announcement came just days before President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to double down on fossil fuel production, was set to take office.

Excess heat is supercharging extreme weather, and in 2024, countries from Spain to Kenya, the United States and Nepal suffered disasters that cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

Los Angeles is currently battling deadly wildfires that have destroyed thousands of buildings and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.

An image of fire sparks and large fires in the background

Deadly wildfires have devastated Los Angeles, razing thousands of buildings. Source: AAP / Michael Nigro/Sipa USA

Another record-breaking year is not anticipated in 2025, as a UN deadline looms for nations to commit to curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

“My prediction is it will be the third-warmest year,” said NASA’s top climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, citing the US determination that the year has begun with a weak La Nina, a global weather pattern that is expected to bring slight cooling.

Nearly 200 nations agreed in Paris in 2015 that meeting 1.5C offered the best chance of preventing the most catastrophic repercussions of climate change.

But the world remains far off track.

While Copernicus records date back to 1940, other climate data from ice cores and tree rings suggest Earth is now likely the warmest it has been in tens of thousands of years.

2024 Year in Review: Climate whiplash amid more weather extremes image

Scientists say every fraction of a degree above 1.5C matters — and that beyond a certain point, the climate could shift in unpredictable ways.

Human-driven climate change is already making droughts, storms, floods and heat waves more frequent and intense.

The death of 1,300 pilgrims in Saudi Arabia during extreme heat, a barrage of powerful tropical storms in Asia and North America, and historic flooding in Europe and Africa marked grim milestones in 2024.

The oceans, which absorb 90 per cent of excess heat from greenhouse gases, warmed to record levels in 2024, straining coral reefs and marine life and stirring violent weather.

Warmer seas drive higher evaporation and atmospheric moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and energising cyclones.

Water vapour in the atmosphere hit fresh highs in 2024, combining with elevated temperatures to trigger floods, heatwaves and “misery for millions of people”, Copernicus climate deputy director Samantha Burgess said.

Scientists attribute some of the record heat to the onset of a warming El Nino in 2023.

But El Nino ended in early 2024, leaving them puzzled by persistently high global temperatures.

“The future is in our hands — swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate,” said Copernicus climate director Carlo Buontempo.

Prime minister’s climate change warning

In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology has announced that 2024 marked the second-hottest year for the country since records started in 1910.

The hottest year was 2019, which culminated in Australia’s devastating Black Summer bushfires.

On Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said people and organisations need to be prepared for more extreme weather events due to climate change.

“Climate change is real. It doesn’t mean that every event that occurs which is an extreme weather event is because of climate change,” Albanese told reporters in Perth.

“What it does mean is that science tells us there will be more extreme weather events, and they’ll be more intense. And that is what we are seeing playing out over recent … decades.

“We’re seeing the hottest years on record being reached year after year, and we’re seeing, as well, more extreme weather events.”