The autumn of 2025 diverges significantly from the political landscape of 2017, the year preceding the Democrats’ takeover of the US House during Trump’s initial term.

While Democrats enjoy a five-point lead among registered voters in the generic congressional ballot, this is considerably less than the 11-point advantage they held in CNN polls a year before the 2018 midterms.

Moreover, the party’s favorability ratings remain near historic lows, trailing by eight points compared to their standing in the fall of Trump’s first year in office.

During a mid-term election year, however, public opinion of the sitting president can often overshadow views of the rival party. Currently, Trump’s approval rating stands at 37 percent, the lowest mark of his second term in CNN surveys and comparable to his 36 percent approval at a similar point in his first term.

His disapproval rating has reached 63 percent, the highest of either term, surpassing the previous peak of 62 percent recorded as he exited office in January 2021.

CNN’s Poll of Polls average, which puts Trump’s approval rating a few points higher at 41 per cent as of Sunday, charts a similar trend since January. Approval of the president has dipped across partisan and demographic lines since the summer in CNN’s polling.

Democrats have a very early advantage

Looking ahead to next year’s mid-terms, Democrats appear to have a very early advantage: 47 per cent of registered voters say they’d vote for the Democrat in their district if the election were held today, while 42 per cent prefer the Republican.

More say they’ve ruled out supporting a Republican (42 per cent) than say the same about a Democrat (35 per cent).

And 41 per cent say they would be sending a message that they oppose Trump with their vote, nearly double the 21 per cent who say their vote would be a message of support for the president. Independents break in Democrats’ favor on the generic ballot (44 per cent to 31 per cent for Republicans, with 19 per cent saying they wouldn’t pick either right now).

Registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents are far more likely than Republican-aligned voters to say they are extremely motivated to vote next year (67 per cent compared with 46 per cent).

Those Democratic-aligned voters who consider the state of democracy to be a top concern are perhaps the most fired up within the party: 82 per cent in that group say they are deeply motivated to vote, compared with 57 per cent among Democratic-aligned voters who call the economy their top concern.

CNN’s poll results suggest that the Democratic Party’s ongoing internal image troubles may not necessarily translate into defections at the ballot box.

Democratic-aligned voters remain far less fond of their own party (65 per cent have a favourable view of the Democratic Party) than Republican-aligned voters (80 per cent have a favourable view of the GOP), but even those Democratic-aligned voters with a negative view of the party are almost universally behind the Democratic candidate in their district (93 per cent) and broadly motivated to vote (71 per cent say they are extremely motivated).

All told, Democrats hold a 12-point advantage among those voters who say they are extremely or very motivated to turn out next year.

Broad dissatisfaction with Trump and the country

Americans are broadly dissatisfied with the state of the country (68 per cent say things are going badly) and the economy (72 per cent say it’s in poor shape, and 47 per cent call the economy and cost of living the top issue facing the US). About six in 10 (61 per cent) say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the US.

Roughly eight in 10 consider the federal government shutdown either a crisis (31 per cent) or a major problem (50 per cent), and 61 per cent disapprove of Trump’s handling of it. Nearly as many disapprove of the way each party’s congressional leadership is handling it (58 per cent disapprove of each). Taken all together, about nine in 10 American disapprove of at least one of those three players on the shutdown.

A majority hold negative views of Trump’s performance on several other key issues: most (56 per cent) feel that his foreign policy decisions have hurt America’s standing in the world, and 57 per cent say he’s gone too far deporting immigrants living in the US illegally.

About a quarter of Americans (26 per cent) say the state of US democracy is the top issue facing the nation, and it is the top issue among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (45 per cent say it’s the most important issue, with the economy and cost of living at 38 per cent).

Americans are increasingly likely to say Trump has gone too far in using the power of the presidency – 61 per cent say so, up nine points since February.

On his teardown of the East Wing of the White House, 54 per cent of the public is dissatisfied or angry, with just 10 per cent saying they’re satisfied with or happy about that decision.

Another 36 per cent (including nearly half of Republicans) say it doesn’t matter much to them.

Most Americans also see the Republicans who control Congress as doing too much to support Trump (55 per cent, up from 48 per cent who felt that way in February).

But the GOP base is pleased: Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are largely satisfied with the level of support the GOP in Congress provides to Trump (63 per cent say it’s the right amount, about the same as in February).

On the Democratic side, though, views are more divided and party support less clear. Four in 10 say the Democrats in Congress aren’t doing enough to oppose Trump, and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 69 per cent feel that way.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS online and by phone from October 27 to 30 among a random national sample of 1245 adults, including 954 registered voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points; it is plus or minus 3.6 points for results among registered voters.