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Only ten ships have navigated the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire between the United States and Iran was declared, according to maritime tracking data. This cautious approach stems from ongoing concerns about traversing this crucial passage.
The announcement of a two-week truce on Wednesday by both Iran and the US included plans to reopen the vital 167-kilometer strait, which connects the Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
Nevertheless, remarks from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and continued Israeli aggression in Lebanon have heightened apprehensions about the strait, a key channel that ordinarily sees about 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Following six weeks of conflict ignited by US and Israeli military actions against Iran, a significant number of vessels and thousands of crew members remain stranded on either side of the strait. The International Energy Agency has labeled this as the most significant disruption to the global oil market supply ever recorded.
Here’s what we currently understand about the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz:
Dire strait for tankers
Just four tankers and six bulk carriers have passed through the strait from the start of the ceasefire up to Thursday, according to maritime data provider Kpler.
Only one of those tankers, the “MSG”, is not Iranian.
The Gabon-flagged ship went through Thursday with around 7,000 tonnes of Emirati fuel oil, and is headed to India, according to the MarineTraffic monitor.
A dozen other vessels appeared to be on course to pass through the waterway, and all were either coming from or going to Iran, or displayed ties with countries not hostile to Iran. That signals little real change from traffic before the ceasefire.
“The Strait remains as open or closed as it was” before the ceasefire plan emerged, shipping journal Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade told a briefing.
Traffic in the past week was “90 per cent below normal levels and it was almost entirely being driven by Iranian trade,” said Bridget Diakun, a Lloyd’s List Intelligence analyst.
Traffic is expected to remain at a maximum 10-15 passages a day “if the ceasefire holds”, according to Kpler analyst Ana Subasic.
Of the 315 passages by commodity carriers from 1 March to 8 April 2025 were by oil and gas tankers, and most were heading east towards the Gulf of Oman, Kpler data showed. A majority involved ships coming from or heading to Iran.
Iran approved route
Iran announced alternative routes through the strait on Thursday, citing the risk of sea mines in the waterway’s main zone. The IRGC set out routes that go near Iran’s Larak Island.
The IRGC said ships could only use the strait in collaboration with the Iranian navy, according to intelligence firm Vanguard Tech.
Apart from three Omani tankers that passed through last week near Oman’s coast, recent transits have used the Iranian-approved route, with some ships reportedly paying a fee.
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Iran could ask for one dollar per barrel of oil passing through the strait, to be paid in cryptocurrency.
Shipping industry representatives told AFP that other rumours indicated ships had to be on an approved list, or that countries would be ranked, with ships from countries friendly to Iran receiving better conditions.
800 ships stuck
Many shipowners and shipping associations are unsure whether ships would be able to safely pass from the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, even if the ceasefire holds.
Leaving the Gulf now “would not be advisable” without coordinating with the United States and Iran, Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer for the international shipping association BIMCO told AFP on Wednesday.
Around 800 ships have been stuck in the Gulf since the war started on 28 February, according to Lloyd’s List. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has said it will not resume traffic on the route.
Some 172 million barrels of crude and refined products on 187 tankers were at sea in the region as of Tuesday, according to Kpler.
Thirty vessesls targeted
No new attacks on ships have been reported since the ceasefire started.
The IRGC claimed three attacks on ships between Saturday and Tuesday, and one has been confirmed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Thirty commercial ships, including 13 tankers, have been attacked or have reported incidents in the region since 1 March, according to the IMO, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre and Vanguard Tech.
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