Following the election, Tsikhanouskaya was forced to flee Belarus under pressure from security forces. She sought refuge in Lithuania, where she has since been tirelessly advocating for political prisoners and rallying support for the Belarusian people. Her efforts also include building international alliances to bolster her cause.

Although Australian political leaders have criticized the legitimacy of the 2020 Belarusian election and shown support for Tsikhanouskaya, Australia’s foreign policy remains focused on recognizing states, rather than individual governments. This stance reflects a diplomatic balancing act in international relations.

Tsikhanouskaya has often spoken about her husband, who was arrested for his activism. “He traveled the country asking people about their lives,” she recalled. “The answers he received exposed the rampant corruption, injustice, and fear. For simply listening to the people, my husband was detained.”

“I got a phone call saying, ‘You’d better stop doing that, or else you will be arrested and your children will go to an orphanage, since both of their parents will be behind bars,’” she told The New Yorker in a December 2020 article.

Belarus was quickly swept by the largest protests in its modern history — and a violent government crackdown.

The United Nations documented thousands of cases of torture and ill-treatment, and at least four deaths linked to the state’s use of force against protesters.

For the almost four years her husband was in detention, Tsikhanouskaya was often kept in the dark about his whereabouts.

Repression, Russia and the war in Ukraine

In 2023, Tsikhanouskaya was tried in absentia in Belarus and sentenced to 15 years for treason, inciting social hatred and attempting to seize power through bodies like the Coordination Council.

“Simply accessing information not funded by Russian propaganda has become a form of digital activism,” she said.

While Lukashenko has vowed to commit no Belarusian troops to the conflict, he confirmed in December that Russia’s nuclear-capable ‘Oreshnik’ ballistic missile system had been deployed to Belarus and entered active combat duty.

“Any act of solidarity can lead to five, 10 or 15 years in prison,” she said.

“Recognise these elections or not: It’s a matter of taste. I don’t care about it. The main thing for me is that Belarusians recognise these elections,” Lukashenko said in response, as reported by Radio Free Europe.

Official state polls, viewed as unreliable by outside observers, routinely report overwhelming trust in Lukashenko and satisfaction with recent election outcomes.

Building a government in exile

“Despite Australia being so far away, I saw a genuinely strong interest in our visit,” Tsikhanouskaya told SBS Russian a week after returning to Europe.

“We would be very glad to see Australian representatives at the next gathering of the For a Democratic Belarus parliamentary groups in London next year.”

‘We want no Belarusian to remain invisible’

“Consulates have stopped helping Belarusians abroad with any legal procedures … Their passports simply expired — and going back to Belarus means a real risk of being jailed,” Kavalchuk said.

In her interview with SBS Russian, Tsikhanouskaya warned the situation could soon escalate into what she described as a “humanitarian catastrophe”, saying “at least half a million Belarusians who were forced to leave and cannot return will effectively be left without a country — without citizenship”.

The first biometric passports have been issued and the group is negotiating for their international recognition.

Kavalchuk called the initiative “a good idea” but said it is not yet widely functional: “In Australia, the US and even parts of Europe, it’s not enough to open a bank account or maintain residency.”

‘History is not written by dictators’

Her team is preparing for “a window of opportunity … when Lukashenko is weak enough to get rid of him”, including outreach to officials, elites and military figures.

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