Teal independent Nicolette Boele has provisionally won the seat of Bradfield, days after it was called for Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, although a recount will determine the official winner of the electorate.

Media outlets, including Nine, projected that Kapterian was on track to narrowly win the blue ribbon electorate in northern Sydney last week when she had a small lead over Boele.

However, following a late surge of support in absent, postal, and declaration pre-poll ballots, Boele tonight leads the seat by just 39 votes with all counted.

The Australian Electoral Commission said it will now undertake a full preference distribution before a likely recount.

“The counting of first preference votes and the indicative two-candidate preferred (TCP) count is now finalised. The full distribution of preferences is the next stage,” it said.

“Once the full distribution of preference is finalised in Bradfield, it is expected to result in movement from the current indicative TCP margin (exact amount of change unknown) as things like the formality of votes are likely challenged afresh through the process.

“The full distribution of preferences is the formal process that determines a final result.

“If, after that process, the final margin is under 100, it is AEC policy to then conduct a formal recount.”

It said the preference distribution count will take all week.

Unlike fellow teals Monique Ryan (who went on to win Kooyong) and Zoe Daniel (who is all but certain to have lost Goldstein), Boele did not claim victory in Bradfield on election night despite performing far stronger than Kapterian in early counting.

Boele had been tipped as a genuine chance of claiming the seat off the Liberals following the retirement of long-time MP and leading moderate Paul Fletcher late last year.

Strong performance on postal votes had given Kapterian the lead in the count for all of last week, only for the margin to narrow significantly on Thursday.

If Boele does end up winning, she would become the 10th independent in the lower house, and the result would likely leave the Coalition with just 43 seats.