The importance of Germany's election

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The consequences of this weekend’s election, , are expected to be far-reaching for Germany and its leadership role in the EU.

Germany’s federal electoral system using proportional voting makes it difficult for a single party or parliamentary group to govern alone — necessitating negotiations to form a coalition government that could take several months to complete.

Of the 29 parties on the ballot, it is likely between five and eight will get enough votes to win seats in the 630-seat parliament, the Bundestag.

From immigration and Germany’s ailing economy to cannabis and gender politics, here is a round-up of the burning issues on voters’ minds in the run-up to Sunday’s election.

Immigration

After a series of deadly attacks blamed on asylum seekers shook Germany, conservative poll frontrunner Friedrich Merz has proposed a crackdown on irregular immigration.

In a clear break with his party’s ex-chancellor Angela Merkel, Merz wants all undocumented foreigners to be turned away at the border, including asylum seekers.

He also wants to restrict family reunification and make it harder to obtain German citizenship.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has accused Merz of trying to “bury Europe” with his plans.

But Scholz’s SPD has also pledged to tighten border controls and speed up deportations — albeit in a way he describes as more “humane and consistent”.

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The far-right AfD has called for a “bulwark” against illegal migration — promising to monitor Germany’s borders day and night and slash benefits for asylum seekers.

Matt Fitzpatrick, a Professor in International History at Flinders University, has written several books on German history.

He says under the so-called firewall policy, parties have formed a consensus not to work with the AfD.

That was tested last month when a non-binding motion calling for tougher border and asylum rules was passed with support from the AfD. The bill was ultimately rejected by parliament.

But Professor Fitzpatrick says it is part of a process that could normalise the far-right party and its rhetoric.

“The deep unease comes from the sense that you don’t need the AfD to be part of the government for some of their policies to be legislated in Friedrich Merz government in the future,” he told SBS News.

“So there are concerns, particularly among people who felt the centrist direction of (former leader) Angela Merkel for the CDU was the right direction for the CDU.”

He says other parties — the SPD and FDP and Die Linke and the Greens — are all firmly opposed to the courting of the right wing.”

He says it is something that is sensitive in Germany with its Nazi past, but also something that also reflects the rise of the far-right in Europe more broadly.

Russia’s war with Ukraine

Three years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany has been the second biggest military backer for Kyiv after the United States.

The mainstream parties have pledged continued support even as US President Donald Trump has thrown the Western alliance into turmoil with his direct outreach to Russia.

Scholz and Merz have different views on what weapons to send to Ukraine.

Merz wants Germany to supply Taurus missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory, while a more cautious Scholz has warned this would mean playing “Russian roulette”.

Three other parties — the AfD and the far-left Die Linke and BSW — have called for an end to all arms deliveries to Ukraine.

The SPD, CDU/CSU and Greens have all voiced willingness to increase military spending above NATO’s target of two per cent of GDP.

Fiscal policy

Mired in recession, Germany is seeking to repair its ailing economy, raising questions on how to pay for new investment in creaking infrastructure, defence and the green energy transition.

For the SPD and the Greens, the answer lies in lifting the so-called debt brake — a constitutional rule that limits annual structural deficits to 0.35 per cent of GDP.

Three election posters with German text, on snowy grass

Campaign posters of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (L) of the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) and German Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck (C), candidate for chancellor of the Alliance 90/The Greens (Greens) in Berlin. Source: AAP / FILIP SINGER/EPA

The conservatives have shown signs of openness on the issue, but are more focused on corporate tax cuts and reducing jobless benefits for those resisting a return to work.

Merz — who once famously argued that a tax return should fit onto a beer coaster — has also vowed to slash back bureaucracy and red tape.

Scholz has proposed income tax cuts for 95 per cent of households, the reintroduction of a wealth tax and higher inheritance tax.

The liberal FDP, meanwhile, has fiercely defended the debt brake, wants to help businesses and to reduce public spending.

Energy and climate

Policies such as weaning Germany off Russian gas, shuttering nuclear power plants and winding down coal have sparked bitter divisions in Germany.

To help the beleaguered car industry, the CDU/CSU wants to reverse a planned European ban on combustion engines from 2035.

It also wants to study a return to atomic power.

The conservatives also want to row back a much-maligned law pioneered by the Greens to encourage the installation of renewable heating systems.

The Greens have promised a climate allowance to compensate citizens for higher heating and energy prices.

The AfD, meanwhile, has denied climate change, and its leader Alice Weidel has labelled wind turbines “windmills of shame”.

Culture wars

The conservatives and AfD have promised to row back on several progressive laws passed by Scholz’s coalition — beginning with the legalisation of cannabis.

The CDU/CSU claims this has led to “violent gang warfare”, while advocates of legalisation say it has helped curb the black market.

In a broadside against what they call “woke” culture, the conservatives and AfD have also pledged to cancel reforms that have made it easier for people to change their legal gender.