The role of Bureau of Meteorology alerts in protecting Australian sheep

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As winter approaches, a severe weather alert specifically targeted at sheep farmers becomes more common in many parts of Australia.

Usually issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), these warnings may not mean much to many, but for those in the sheep-rearing business, they can be the difference between profit and loss in a year.

Farmer Keith McGrath is one of the many in Australia who will be taking these warnings seriously.

He’s been raising sheep in the Yass Valley region of NSW since 1977 and now runs his own business, Billa Burra Burra, which is spread over 115 paddocks.

Here in the Southern Tablelands, livestock farmers compete with particularly cold and wet weather.

He told SBS News that the colder winter months require careful planning for sheep welfare.

‘Sheep grazier warnings’, as the name suggests, warn farmers about upcoming cold or wet conditions that could cause their livestock harm.

The alerts are key to ensuring animal welfare, especially when conditions can be unpredictable or fast-changing.

McGrath now has around 1,500 sheep on his property — a small fraction of the 78.8 million in Australia, according to 2023 estimates by Meat and Livestock Australia.

When and where are most sheep grazier warnings received?

These alerts are most often sent to farmers in southwest Western Australia, southern South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and much of NSW, a BoM spokesperson told SBS News.

NSW has the most sheep in Australia — around 36 per cent — followed by Victoria at 24 per cent and Western Australia at 19 per cent.

A map of where Australia's sheep are located

Source: SBS News

The BoM spokesperson said the frequency of warnings would likely increase as the weather becomes colder and wetter, especially for people living in Australia’s southern regions.

“The bureau uses a combination of wind, temperature and rain thresholds to determine if a warning needs to be issued,” the spokesperson said.

“When the temperature is colder, combined with strong winds and rain, a warning is more likely to be issued.”

“For example, if it is 11C and rainy, but with no breeze, a warning wouldn’t be triggered. Once winds of 25km/h are added in, this would trigger a warning,” the spokesperson explained.

“By extension, the colder and rainier it is, the lighter the winds need to be to trigger a warning.”

A farmer tends to several sheep in a pen.

Farmers shear sheep at certain times of the year to ensure that they have thicker wool for winter. Credit: Bloomberg via Getty Images

Lambs, sheared sheep most vulnerable

McGrath said that sheep shearing takes place in October and November and that the birthing of lambs happens around September or October.

When winter does roll around, the lambs are older and more resilient to the cold, and the sheep have regrown their wool.

“We manage our whole operation around trying to keep our sheep from being cold,” he said.

“We have all our property fenced so that we can shelter those sheep in the best possible locations when we get a [sheep grazier] warning.”

There are also sheds on his property where sheep can be housed in cold and wet weather.

But temperature and rainfall can be unpredictable.

‘We would’ve lost 200 lambs in a night’

McGrath recalled a cold night in September decades ago when a large number of his lambs died due to harsh weather conditions.

Newborn lambs are susceptible to hypothermia (low body temperature) and can die from it.

“The lambs were a week old, and the ewes didn’t go to the shelter in the paddock. They stood out in the middle, and we lost lambs,” he said.

“We would’ve lost 200 lambs in a night.”

He said it’s a night he won’t forget and has learned from.

“We’re in a vastly different situation with our set-up — with our paddocks and our infrastructure — now than we were then, 40 years ago.”

Livestock welfare guidelines

The Australian wing of the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) publishes guidelines on animal welfare for livestock farmers.

One such online resource advises how livestock owners can stay prepared for extreme events and weather.

“Emergency events like droughts, fires, floods and other natural disasters are an unfortunate reality … becoming more frequent as a result of climate change,” it reads.

“Owners of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs, poultry and other farm animals have a duty of care to always ensure the welfare of their animals.”

How much is Australia’s sheep wool and meat industry worth?

In Australia, sheep are reared primarily for their wool and meat.

As of 2023, Australia was the world’s largest exporter of sheepmeat, both by volume and value, according to the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.

The sheep and wool industries employed over 16,000 Australians directly and contributed more than $7.9 billion to the Australian economy in 2023-24.

Market research company IBISWorld forecasts that the industry will contribute an additional $1 billion to the Australian economy by 2030.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations have both predicted a 48 per cent increase in the producer price of Australian sheepmeat over the next decade.

A chart showing how the value of wool has changed since 2021

Source: SBS News

Meat and Livestock Australia estimates that the country had approximately 5.8 per cent of the world’s sheep flock in 2022.

The gross value of Australian lamb and mutton production is expected to rise by 5 per cent to $4.6 billion in 2024–25.

The increase is due to higher prices and higher production cited by the federal government’s June 2024 Agricultural Commodities Outlook.

Wool has long been associated with Australia. The National Wool Museum in Geelong, Victoria, has artefacts from the sheep industry dating back to the 1790s.

The industry has thrived since, making Australia the world’s largest producer of wool, in addition to being the world’s largest exporter of sheepmeat.

According to Trading Economics, as of 21 May, 100 kilograms of Australian wool was priced at $1,189.