Trump and Musk's friendship is over: Will there be peace or will there be a dramatic response?

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United States President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk’s once friendly relationship has descended into acrimony as the pair exchange threats and accusations on social media.

The feud puts about US$22 billion ($34 billion) in government contracts held by Musk’s SpaceX at risk, and multiple United States space programs could also face dramatic changes if the dispute escalates.

US media reported there could be signs of a truce. But if they don’t make peace, Musk could look for ways to diminish the president’s authority and “seek revenge,” according to a US politics expert.

How did the Trump-Musk bromance break down?

Trump said in a televised Oval Office diatribe on Thursday (local time) that he was “very disappointed” after his former aide and top donor criticised his “big, beautiful” spending bill before Congress.

The pair then hurled insults at each other on social media.

Musk hit back in real time on his X social media platform, saying the Republican would not have won the 2024 election without him and slamming Trump for “ingratitude”.

The tech billionaire also replied: “Yes,” to a post on X saying Trump should be impeached. Trump’s Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of Congress and are highly unlikely to impeach him.

Musk was the biggest financial supporter of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, donating US$288 million ($442 million).

Trump noted this on Thursday, saying the pair “had a great relationship” but didn’t know if they would anymore.

Trump later called Musk “crazy” and insisted he had asked the tycoon to leave because he was “wearing thin”.

US President Donald Trump handing billionaire Elon Musk a symbolic key.

Elon Musk and Donald Trump in the Oval Office on 30 May, when the president thanked him for leading the Department of Government Efficiency, which is not an official US federal department. Source: AAP, AP / Evan Vucci

The US president Trump suggested hitting the entrepreneur where it hurts, threatening Musk’s multibillion-dollar government contracts including for launching rockets and for the use of the Starlink satellite service.

“The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Again Musk fired back, with the SpaceX chief saying he would begin “decommissioning” his company’s Dragon spacecraft — vital for ferrying NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station — in response.

He later appeared to walk that back, replying to a user on Twitter: “OK, we won’t decommission Dragon”, though his tone was unclear.

Was the relationship always doomed to fail?

Speculation had long swirled that a relationship between the world’s richest person and its most powerful could not last long — but the speed of the meltdown took Washington by surprise.

Dr John Hart, an emeritus professor at the Australian National University and a specialist in US politics, believes the Trump–Musk relationship, at its core, came down to monetary gain.

“Initially, the relationship was based on money,” Hart told SBS News.

“There were huge contributions that Musk made to Trump’s campaign … it was a phenomenal amount.”

A Falcon 9 SpaceX heavy rocket lifts off from pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral.

The feud puts about US$22 billion ($34 billion) in government contracts held by Elon Musk’s SpaceX at risk, and multiple United States space programs could also face dramatic changes if the dispute escalates. Source: AAP

It wasn’t surprising the pair had fallen out, according to Hart, who said such disputes are part of a pattern of a Trump presidency.

Trump parted ways with multiple chiefs of staff, national security advisers and political strategists during his first term in 2017-2021.

“The relationship between Trump and Musk inevitably meant that Musk, the richest guy in the world, was going to have to share the limelight with Trump,” Hart said.

“And Trump’s ego is so great that that was always going to be difficult.”

A truce? Or an ‘explosive’ retaliation?

US media outlets reported on Friday that White House aides had scheduled a phone call between Musk and Trump, but the president said on Friday that he had no plans to speak with Elon Musk.

Addressing reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said he wasn’t “thinking about” the Tesla CEO.

He also said a review of Musk’s extensive contracts with the federal government was in order. “We’ll take look at everything,” the president said. “It’s a lot of money.”

Trump may get rid of the red Tesla Model S that he bought in March after showcasing Musk’s electric cars on the White House lawn, a White House official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk speak to reporters in front of a red Model S Tesla vehicle on the South Lawn of the White House.

US President Donald Trump bought a Model S Tesla in March, telling reporters that he hoped the purchase would boost the electric vehicle company’s declining sales. Credit: Pool via AP

Musk, for his part, has not continued to directly address Trump but kept up his criticism of the massive Republican tax and spending bill that contains much of Trump’s domestic agenda.

On his social-media platform X, Musk amplified remarks made by others that Trump’s “big beautiful bill” would hurt Republicans politically and add to the nation’s $36.2 trillion debt.

He replied “exactly” to a post by another X user that said Musk had criticised Congress and Trump had responded by criticising Musk personally.

Musk also declared it was time for a new political party in the United States “to represent the 80% in the middle!”

People who have spoken to Musk said his anger has begun to recede and they think he will want to repair his relationship with Trump, according to one person who has spoken to Musk’s entourage.

Earlier, Musk had signalled a possible détente, writing “you’re not wrong,” in response to billionaire investor Bill Ackman saying Trump and Musk should make peace.

However, if such a peace isn’t reached, the pair could “seek revenge” and undermine the other’s influence, Hart predicted.

But what might revenge look like? Hart said Musk could “hit back” at Trump by supporting his political rivals at the 2026 midterm elections.

Republicans currently hold majorities in both houses of Congress, and Hart said the key way to “rein in Trump’s influence” would be for some seats to flip to the Democrats.

“Money is everything in congressional elections,” he said. “So if Musk holds back support for Republican candidates who support Trump, the results could be explosive.”

And Trump could continue to go after government contracts that benefit Musk’s companies, Hart said.

— With reporting by the Reuters and Agence France-Presse news agencies.