Share and Follow
In brief
- South Australians head to the polls on Saturday.
- The election will be closely watched, amid One Nations rise in the polls.
Voters in South Australia are preparing to cast their ballots this Saturday, and while it’s anticipated that the Labor government will maintain its position, political analysts are closely monitoring a burgeoning rivalry between One Nation and the Liberal Party.
Ashton Hurn, the leader of the Liberal Party, emphasized that her team has exerted maximum effort ahead of the election. However, it’s uncertain if these efforts will be sufficient to retain voters who might be considering other options.
This election marks a significant moment for One Nation, as it faces its first test at the polls since the party’s rise in national popularity last year.
The critical question remains whether South Australians are willing to support One Nation’s controversial right-wing platform, which includes populist policies and proposed immigration reductions.
Corey Bernardi, the state leader and former senator of the Australian Conservatives, is optimistic about securing at least one seat in the upper house for his party.
He needs just over eight per cent of the vote to do so and is running on a platform that promises to reduce overall immigration.
The party is also eyeing off several regional seats, where they could find themselves contesting three way races with the Liberals and Independents, who have traditionally done quite well in the state.
Controversially, reversing a Howard-era policy against preferencing One Nation, the Liberals have also placed them ahead of Labor on their how-to-vote cards.
Despite this, Hurn is clear her party does not endorse them.
“I couldn’t name you a single policy One Nation have talked about implementing,” she said.
Bernardi has hit back at these accusations.
“For the last month, they’ve been saying we don’t have policies, despite having a comprehensive suite of policies on our website,” he said.
Any wins this election won’t be the first for One Nation in South Australia.
Orange candidate Sarah Game was elected in 2022, but she defected to sit as an independent last year, after she took issues with the party’s “brand”.
Incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas, looking all but assured another term in office, said he would wait until the election played out to assess the strength of One Nation’s hold on South Australia.
“I think what really matters … is that serious parties of government have serious policy for the future of the state,” he said.
This is also the first election since South Australia banned political donations in 2024, which will no doubt be another topic of discussion once the votes are counted.
What the polls say
Put stock in them or not, opinion polls have seen One Nation edge further and further ahead of the Liberal’s primary vote.
The final YouGov and Newspoll results have One Nation taking 22 per cent of the primary vote, with the Liberals taking home percentages in the high teens.
Associate professor Rob Manwaring from Flinders University said these results reflect an “implosion” of the state’s Liberal Party.
“A lot of the result of what’s happening to One Nation is something that’s happening to them, rather than necessarily the way they’ve been campaigning,” he told SBS News.
He said the Liberal Party had lost voters and “many right or centre-right inclined voters are considering now parking their vote somewhere else.”
This is backed by YouGov polling, which found 52 per cent of the party’s supporters saying they felt unrepresented by the major parties, with only 10 per cent claiming to support its policies.
Manwaring said it was unclear if these primary votes would result in seats.
“Minor parties face the problem under the electoral system for the lower house is that even if they score relatively well, 20 to 30 per cent, then preferences might not go their way,” he said.
If they are successful though, Manwaring said One Nation could change the tone of South Australia’s parliament.
“If One Nation picks up probably two seats in the upper house … they have an eight year platform [for] their own rather polarising and divisive rhetoric.”
Why are South Australians turning away from the Liberals?
The state’s Liberal party has burned through leaders and weathered several high profile scandals in recent years.
“The low point,” Manwaring said, was when former leader David Speirs resigned in 2024 after he was arrested and later convicted of supplying drugs.
“That’s proved damaging to the reputation.”
It’s a line echoed by South Australian party leader Bernardi.
He said a “deep well of concern about how party politics is failing citizens” was driving his party’s success.
Policies?
Power, health and housing have dominated policy announcements this election.
Labor has spruiked its investments into the state’s hospital sector and its construction record.
While the Liberals have proposed a new hospital development, changes to stamp duty for first home buyers and significant investment in road upgrades.
Thanks to One Nation, immigration has also entered the conversation.
Malinauskas said immigration was “not on the ballot,” even as One Nation has made it a key talking point.
Bernardi said his party wanted to deprioritise Muslim immigration, and to “cut back” on numbers
The future of South Australia’s First Nations Voice to Parliament has also become a central point of difference between Labor, One Nation and the Liberals.
It was established in 2023 and is about to elect its second cohort of representatives.
The Labor government has committed to the institution, while the Liberals and One Nation have both said they would scrap it.
“The one thing I think people want from their politicians now more than anything else is authenticity and honesty,” Malinauskas said.
“And I believe that the Voice can have a positive role to play.”
For the latest from SBS News, download our app and subscribe to our newsletter.