Uncertainty Looms as Trump's Proposal to Govern Venezuela Sparks Debate

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One of the biggest questions that has hung over the United States’ capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has been: Who is actually in charge?

With few details of how the US plans to actually “run” the country — as flagged by US President Donald Trump — Australian international law experts say it could see the US in a situation as a potential occupying power.

In the early hours of Saturday local time (5pm AEDT), US forces seized Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores from their compound in Venezuela and put them on a warship before flying them to the US to stand trial in New York on a range of criminal charges.

Maduro’s abduction follows months of rising tensions between Venezuela and the US that led to a US military buildup in the region and several deadly strikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea, which it accused of facilitating drug trafficking.

While many Western nations oppose Maduro and believe he stole Venezuela’s 2024 election, there have been calls for the US to respect international law and questions about the legality of its actions.

Shortly after Maduro and Flores were captured, Trump said the US would “run the country” until there could be a “safe, proper and judicious transition” of power.

While his secretary of state Marco Rubio has since appeared to backpedal on those remarks, Trump has doubled down.

“We’re in charge,” Trump told reporters on Monday AEDT.

The assertion came after Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, who is now acting as interim president, appeared to hit back at Trump’s claims she’d privately indicated a willingness to work with the US administration.

Understanding the tumultuous shifts in Venezuela’s political scene is crucial to anticipating future developments. Recent statements from Delcy Rodriguez emphasize the need for a “balanced and respectful” diplomatic relationship between Venezuela and the United States.

Rodriguez declared that Venezuela would never revert to being under any form of colonial rule, alluding to the country’s past under Spanish control from the 16th century until its declaration of independence in the 19th century.

Delcy Rodriguez, like Maduro, is a member of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela and has served as the country’s vice president since 2018.

She was declared the acting president by Venezuela’s highest court following Maduro’s capture.

A woman in a green blazer, standing at a podium, is speaking.

Meanwhile, Rubio has moderated President Trump’s more belligerent rhetoric by indicating that the United States intends to steer the situation through diplomatic channels. He explained on ABC that the U.S. is focused on guiding the trajectory of these events.

“We will never again be a colony of any empire,” she said, referencing Spain’s colonisation of Venezuela from the 16th century until it declared independence in the 1800s.

Trump went on to threaten the interim president, telling American outlet The Atlantic that Rodriguez would pay a “bigger price” than Maduro if she “doesn’t do what’s right” and fall in line with US demands.

Trump said he wants Rodriguez to give the US and private companies “total access” to Venezuela’s oil infrastructure — the government’s main financial lifeline — and said a strong response could follow if she didn’t comply.

Rubio has tempered Trump’s more aggressive language, suggesting the US will seek to assert control through foreign policy levers, and telling US broadcaster ABC: “What we are running is the direction that this is going to move forward.”

Citing leverage such as an ongoing US blockade on sanctioned tankers, Rubio warned Venezuela’s severely weakened economy would “not be able to move forward until the conditions that are in the national interest of the United States” and the Venezuelan people were met.

Those conditions included taking moves to stop drug trafficking and keeping Venezuela’s oil industry out of the hands of US adversaries.

Rubio said the US does not recognise Rodriguez as a legitimate leader of Venezuela.

“We don’t believe that this regime in place is legitimate via an election,” he said.

“Ultimately, legitimacy for their system of government will come about through a period of transition and real elections, which they have not had.”

On Monday, Rodriguez called for a “balanced and respectful” relationship between the US and Venezuela — one built on the principles of “sovereign equality and non-interference”.

Trump, when asked if he had spoken to Rodriguez, replied: “Don’t ask me who’s in charge because I’ll give you an answer and it’ll be very controversial.”

Pressed on what he meant, Trump said: “It means we’re in charge.”

What might the US’ next steps be — and is there any framework?

While Trump has suggested there’d be no need to put US military forces in Venezuela should Rodriguez comply with US demands, he hasn’t ruled it out either. “We’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” he said.

Don Rothwell, a professor of international law at the Australian National University, said the Trump administration has been taking an “increasingly expansive interpretation and approach” to the operation of US law in a range of situations.

Rothwell said Maduro’s seizure had been “perhaps the most expansive interpretation that one can immediately identify at the moment”.

Nicolás Maduro is awaiting trial on criminal charges in New York. Source: Getty / Alfredo Lasry R

With Maduro on trial in New York, having pleaded not guilty to the narco-terrorism charges against him, Rothwell said two scenarios could hypothetically see the US “run” Venezuela as Trump has flagged, but that neither seems likely.

If the US were to militarily intervene in Venezuela and the Venezuelan government were to capitulate, the US would become an occupying power, according to Rothwell.

It would exercise those powers under the Fourth Geneva Convention, the legal framework which sets out the duties of an occupying force and the rights of citizens.

“That doesn’t appear to be likely at the moment unless the United States is prepared to invest significant military resources in doing so,” he said.

Another possible — but also unlikely — scenario would be Venezuela inviting the US to run the country, or the United Nations deciding to create an interim government there.

“In the face of a functioning Venezuelan government, where, it needs to be acknowledged, there’s been a transition of power to the acting president, Rodriguez, all of that at the moment seems very far-fetched,” he said.

Shannon Brincat, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of the Sunshine Coast, told SBS News there is no precedent for a state to take control of parts of another state for its own use.

The US managing the oil of Venezuela after regime change “would be, potentially, strong evidence of occupation”, Brincat said, incurring the range of duties on an occupying power.

“Without the local sovereign’s freely given consent and authority, that would seem to be a hostile occupation,” he said.

Tamer Morris, an international law lecturer at the University of Sydney, said the US had no legal claim to control or to seize Venezuela.

“If the United States takes control of Venezuela without consent of Venezuela — and I’m assuming because the president is in custody he has not given his consent — this would be classified as a form of occupation and would be completely illegal,” he told the ABC.

“Specifically after 1945 we banned what is known as conquest, which is states can take territory or take resources by use of force.”

What about the opposition?

Questions about Venezuela’s future leadership have also emerged regarding opposition leader María Corina Machado.

Machado, who celebrated Maduro’s abduction by the US and has repeatedly praised Trump and the actions of his administration, has called for Venezuelans to recognise Edmundo González as the country’s legitimate president.

With Machado disqualified from running, González was the main opposition candidate against Maduro in the 2024 federal election, in which the latter was contentiously declared the winner.

Vote tallies were not publicly provided, and the government-controlled National Electoral Council were accused of falsifying results. Protests erupted, and multiple world governments — including the US — challenged the result, made allegations of electoral fraud and recognised González as Venezuela’s leader.

A woman in a white blazer speaking into a microphone.

While Venezuela’s opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, has been suggested as a possible next leader of the country, US officials have dismissed the idea. Source: AAP / EPA / Ole Berg-Rusten

After a request from the public prosecutor’s office, an arrest warrant was issued for González in the aftermath, on a range of charges, and he was granted asylum in Spain.

Rubio, speaking to NBC’s Meet the Press program on Monday, said while he supported Machado, much of the Venezuelan opposition was currently in exile, and that the US was focused on short-term plans over the next few weeks.

Trump, similarly, has dismissed the idea of working with Machado, saying she doesn’t have enough support within Venezuela.

“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader,” Trump said on the weekend.

How are Venezuelans feeling?

In the 13 years he was in power, following the death of his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, Maduro was seen by many as authoritarian, and his government was accused of fraud, corruption, suppressing opposition, and human rights abuses — charges he denied.

Venezuela’s economy also nosedived further under Maduro’s rule.

As the situation in Venezuela continues to escalate without a clear sense of what will happen next, those who will be most impacted will be those living day to day in Venezuela.

On the ground, reactions to Maduro’s ousting have appeared conflicted.

A large crowd of people walking down a street, waving Venezuelan flags.

Pro-government supporters attend a rally a day after the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas. Source: Getty / Carlos Becerra

While some Venezuelans have expressed joy at Maduro’s ousting and hope for the future, others worry the US intervention will create further instability.

In Caracas, resident Ronald Gaulee said many people now saw a moment of transition.

“There should be a positive change for all Venezuelans because it has been 28 years of government, and now is the time for transition in this country,” he told the Reuters news agency.

“Now, we have to wait for these people to speak out and see what they have to say. Everything should happen now, and we should get out of this situation.”

Khaty Yanez lives in the Chilean capital Santiago and is one of an estimated 7.7 million Venezuelans — 20 per cent of the population — who have left the country since 2014.

“We are free. We are all happy that the dictatorship has fallen and that we have a free country,” Yanez told Reuters.

But Caracas resident Franklin Jimenez said the US’ capture of Maduro would “create an even worse conflict than the one we have now”.

“Look at the situation we’re living [in],” Cecilia Romero said. “There’s anxiety and desperation, and we don’t know what will happen.”

Joaquin Restrepo, another Caracas resident, also said many people felt unclear about what the future would look like in the days ahead.

“We’re all living with this uncertainty to see what will happen, what the directives will be, so we can continue with life,” Restrepo said.

Raul Sanchez-Urribarri, associate professor of crime, justice and legal studies at La Trobe University, told SBS News the people of his home country have suffered greatly for many years.

“This is a country that lost over 70 per cent of its economy, eight million people, a quarter of its population.

“So, this is a moment of trepidation, of fear for the present, for the future. But at the same time, for many people, a bit of hope in the sense that it could well be that the opening has the potential for opening other scenarios for the country. And all those sentiments and all those concerns can coexist.”

— With additional reporting by Reuters and Agence France-Presse