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In Kyiv, there’s growing apprehension that the conflict involving Iran might redirect essential Western weaponry away from Ukraine, as the United States depletes its stock of missiles and air defense systems at a rapid pace.
President Zelensky has expressed concerns about potential “delays in delivering certain weapons or reductions in the volume of critical defensive supplies for us.”
“The risk is very high, in my view,” he stated, noting that Ukraine is now seeking support from other allies to bolster its air defenses against Putin’s invasion.
Interestingly, this situation arises just as the U.S. turns to Kyiv for expertise in countering drone attacks.
For the Gulf states, the sight of Iranian Shahed drones targeting their regions is new. However, Ukraine is all too familiar with this threat and has responded by developing a small interceptor that costs just a fraction of the already inexpensive Shaheds.
While Iranian Shahed drones homing in on targets is a new sight for the Gulf states, it’s all too familiar in Ukraine, which has since developed a small interceptor that only costs about one-sixth of the already-cheap Shaheds.
“The Americans reached out to us several times (about drone defence),” Zelensky said.
“There were several requests, either for assistance to a particular country or for support for Americans.
“For now, we are providing guidance and consultations to help protect civilians and bases.”
In the early days of Russia’s invasion, Iran supplied Moscow with the Shahed drones it had developed and manufactured – a valuable income source for Tehran’s heavily sanctioned economy.
Now the roles are reversed.
Thanks to a deal worth roughly $2.5 billion signed in 2022 – which Putin paid for in part by sending two tonnes of gold bullion to Iran – Russia now produces the vast majority of its drones.
Having slapped its own name on the distinctive weapons – the Geran – Moscow has modified and improved on the original Iranian design, and according to Zelensky is now exporting those drones to Tehran, along with military intelligence.
One of the world’s largest energy producers, Moscow’s oil and gas revenues have sustained its war chest for its assault on Ukraine, but sanctions from the US and European Union have strangled the cash lifeline to its lowest level in years.
However, daily revenue from oil sales during the Iran war has been on average 14 per cent higher than in February, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.Â
It says Russia has been earning €510 million ($832 million) every day this month from oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
How much of an extra impact that will have is disputed.
Trade Secretary Scott Bessent insisted the relief won’t provide much of a boon for the Kremlin, and some analysts agree.
Former Russian Central Bank official Sergei Aleksashenko said the move “will not be a very significant boost” to the Russian budget because the oil was going to find buyers anyway.
Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, said it “does not fundamentally change the structure of longer-term Russian oil flows or sanctions pressure” because the relief is temporary.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, though, said the rest of the G7 had told Trump “this is not the right signal to send”, and Zelensky is adamant it will only play into Putin’s hands.
“Lifting sanctions on Russia will not help the world; it will only help Russia,” he told CNN.Â
“In just these 14-15 days, they earned roughly $US10 billion (about $14 billion).”
Separately, he said there was no doubt where that extra revenue would be directed.
“This easing alone by the United States could provide Russia with about $US10 billion for the war,” he claimed.Â
“It spends the money from energy sales on weapons, and all of this is then used against us.”
– with CNN, Associated Press
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