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In a notable shift in Australia’s cancer mortality trends, upper gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have surpassed lung cancer as the leading cause of cancer-related deaths, according to a new analysis of national mortality data.
The study, conducted by the Pancare Foundation in collaboration with analysts from Provocate, revealed that in 2024, upper GI cancers were responsible for 9,301 deaths. This figure constitutes approximately 18 percent of all cancer-related fatalities in the country.
For decades, lung cancer had the highest mortality rate, but it accounted for 9,119 deaths in the same year, representing around 17 percent of the total cancer deaths.
This analysis draws on the most recent cause-of-death data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), released in November 2025, highlighting a significant change in the nation’s cancer mortality landscape.
Mark Buzza, Head of Research, Innovation, and Advocacy at the Pancare Foundation, emphasized that the findings spotlight a growing yet frequently overlooked health challenge.
“The Pancare-Provocate analysis … paints a disturbing picture for thousands of Australians, with almost one in five cancer deaths now caused by upper GI cancers, which affect organs vital for swallowing, digesting and processing food, controlling glucose and producing hormones,” he said.
Upper GI cancers include pancreatic, liver, stomach, oesophageal and biliary cancers, a group of diseases affecting the digestive system that often develop without obvious early warning signs and can be difficult to diagnose quickly.
Rapidly rising deaths
The Pancare-Provocate study examined ABS mortality data over a 20-year period between 2004 and 2024, alongside a national poll of more than 1,000 Australian adults conducted by YouGov in December 2025.
The data shows deaths from upper GI cancers have risen sharply over the past decade. Between 2014 and 2024, fatalities linked to the cancers increased by 35 per cent.
That growth in death rate is roughly double the increase recorded across all cancers combined, which rose by 18 per cent during the same period. Lung cancer deaths increased by 10 per cent.
Over longer timeframes, the research also identified upper GI cancers as the fastest growing tumour stream in Australia across five, 10 and 20 years.
Symptoms are often difficult to identify early and may be mistaken for common digestive issues, Buzza said. Early signs can include persistent heartburn or indigestion, ongoing stomach or back pain, unexplained weight loss, difficulty swallowing, jaundice or changes in appetite.
“A combination of low awareness, late diagnoses and a lack of targeted treatment options play a key role in upper GI cancer’s having some of the nation’s lowest survival rates — and now the highest number of cancer-related deaths in Australia,” he said.
The awareness gap
Despite the rising death toll, the study found public understanding of the impact of upper GI cancers remains limited.
Polling conducted for the analysis showed only two per cent of Australians correctly identified upper GI cancers as the cancer group responsible for the most deaths.
Instead, 21 per cent believed lung cancers were the leading cause of cancer deaths. Skin and breast cancers were also commonly nominated, despite ranking significantly lower in mortality.
“Many thousands of Australians and their loved ones are impacted by an upper GI cancer diagnosis every year,” Buzza said.
“Upper GI cancers are now responsible for nearly one in five cancer deaths but have received less than one in 10 cancer research dollars in Australia in recent years.”
Buzza said improving awareness and encouraging people to seek medical advice if symptoms persist could help improve outcomes.
“That’s why we’re encouraging people to know the facts, ‘trust their gut’ and seek advice from their GP if something doesn’t feel right, because early detection is vital,” he said.
“Cancer deaths are still too high across the board in Australia and one of the goals of this analysis is to advocate for increased funding for all cancers, including upper GI cancers.”
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