Victoria’snewly appointed premier, Ben Carroll, is facing a critical challenge to regain public support for the Labor Party just four months before the state election scheduled for November 28.
Addressing the media on Tuesday, Carroll stated, “I will do things differently, because different times require a new approach.”
Carroll succeeds Jacinta Allan, who was once the youngest female parliamentarian, having first been elected at 25. Allan assumed the premiership in 2023 following Daniel Andrews’ resignation.
However, Allan’s tenure as premier witnessed a significant drop in her net approval ratings in recent months. This decline came amid escalating criticism related to Labor’s infrastructure expenditures and the party’s handling of alleged corruption within the construction sector.
A Resolve opinion poll highlights the prevailing challenges, showing that 43 percent of Victorians currently favor Liberal leader Jess Wilson for the role of state premier, compared to just 24 percent supporting Allan.
Another poll, from RedBridge in July, put the once-popular Labor Party’s primary vote at 26 per cent, behind One Nation’s 27 per cent.
So where did it all go wrong for Allan and Victorian Labor?
A delayed royal commission
Ben Carroll’s first act as premier was to announce a royal commission into the construction sector, which had been plagued by years of corruption scandals centred on the $109 billion ‘Big Build’ infrastructure program.
“In my government, integrity will not be optional,” Carroll said in his first speech to the press on Tuesday afternoon.
The commission will focus on the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU), first alleged by the Nine Network in 2024 to have worked with crime organisations to profit from Big Build contracts.
According to the government’s website, Big Build has delivered 130 infrastructure projects since 2015 at a cost of around $109 billion, including the controversial Suburban Rail Loop.
In February, an investigation commissioned by the CFMEU estimated Victorian taxpayers had lost $15 billion to organised crime, an untested figure which was disputed by Allan and the state’s attorney-general at the time.
The same month, Victorian Liberals and Nationals pledged support for a royal commission.
Pressure builds on Allan
Allan, who had referred Big Build to the state’s anti-corruption watchdog in 2024, resisted calls for a royal commission despite her approval ratings plummeting amid perceived inaction over Big Build corruption.
One Resolve poll, published by Nine in July, had Allan’s approval rating at -36 per cent.
As pressure mounted, Allan acknowledged and apologised for criminal conduct on Big Build in an op-ed in The Age in early July.
“Some argue the answer is another royal commission. We’ve tried that before,” Allan wrote at the time.
“Australia held a royal commission into trade unions in the last decade. It cost $46 million, went after workers, achieved only one criminal conviction, and didn’t change the culture.”
Carroll, however, took a different tack. Alongside the commission, he announced a strengthening of the investigative powers of the state’s anti-corruption watchdog.
“Let me make one thing very clear. I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not Jacinta Allan,” he said.
A mounting debt crisis
In 2023, then-premier Andrews took the country by surprise when he announced Victoria would no longer be hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games, which was estimated to have ballooned in cost to $7 billion.
“I will not take money out of hospitals and schools to fund an event that is three times the cost that was estimated and budgeted for last year,” he told the press at the time.
The news put the spotlight on the state’s budget, which had been growing exponentially in costs since Labor took over from the Liberals in 2014, and had intensified after the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the state’s own budget forecasts, debt is estimated to grow to $199.3 billion by 2030, or 24.4 per cent of Victoria’s total economic production, called the gross state product (GSP).
In 2024-2025, the state debt was $150 billion, which was 23.7 per cent of GSP.
It comes as most Australian states grapple with post-pandemic debt, with NSW debt expected to hit almost $237 billion by 2030.
The Rail Loop defining Allan’s reign
The Suburban Rail Loop became a catch-all for criticisms of Labor’s economic management, with the state Opposition pressuring Labor to cancel the project estimated to cost the state government around $125bn.
The 90km loop through Melbourne’s outer suburbs was promised by Andrews in his 2018 election campaign.
The state government has signed $13 billion worth of construction contracts on the project, according to The Guardian.
In January, The Australian reported that some of those contracts included funds of up to $196,000 for “indoor plant hire and maintenance” for the Suburban Rail Loop office.
In May, state Opposition leader Jess Wilson promised to pause and review the train line if voted into power.
Carroll, meanwhile, said he understood the public’s budget concerns without committing to pausing or cancelling the Rail Loop.
“My first job was at Kmart down the road from where I lived,” he told the press on Tuesday.
“It taught me from a young age the value of a dollar.”
Carroll promised that every dollar spent by the government would be “treated carefully, responsibly, and only where it delivers the greatest value to Victoria and Victorians”.
When pushed in Question Time on Tuesday, Carroll said he would address the matter through a cabinet process.
Victoria’s next state election will be held on 28 November.