In the aftermath of Russia’s extensive military aggression against Ukraine, now spanning nearly four and a half years, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy encounters a significant political hurdle on the home front.
This past week, Kyiv witnessed unprecedented demonstrations under Zelenskyy’s leadership, as public discontent over strategies to counter their eastern adversary erupted into the open. Thousands of young Ukrainians flooded the streets, voicing their outrage over controversial military recruitment practices and the administration’s alleged corruption.
In response to these mounting protests, Zelenskyy took decisive action on Wednesday, relieving army chief Oleksandr Syrsky of his duties. Syrsky, a seasoned commander aged 60, had become a lightning rod for protest since the dismissal of a younger, reform-oriented defence minister.
The dismissed minister, 35-year-old Mykhailo Fedorov, was ousted by Zelenskyy a mere six months into the role. Reports suggest that Syrsky may have influenced Zelenskyy’s decision to remove the tech-savvy youth, only to be replaced himself by Mykhailo Drapatyi as the new military head.
These leadership changes hint at potential instability within Zelenskyy’s administration, particularly following the recent dismissal of former Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko earlier this month.
Ukrainian opposition MP Oleksiy Goncharenko told the SBS World News Weekly podcast that Zelenskyy’s position is “very weakened” amid ongoing corruption scandals, and the rotation of political appointments suggests Zelenskyy is trying to shore up his position.
However, Iryna Skubii, senior researcher in Ukrainian studies at the University of Melbourne, told SBS News that what may appear to be a crisis from the outside reflects “how democracy works” in Ukraine.
“It’s how civil society illustrates what they want from political leadership at this time, and political leadership listened to them and made this decision accordingly,” she said.
Ukraine has been subject to Russian aggression since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. The conflict escalated when Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Skubii said Ukrainians are understandably tired but remain resolute in their rejection of Russian domination.
Peter Tesch, a former Australian ambassador to Russia, told SBS News that the divide between Syrsky and Fedorov — who is reportedly being considered for another position in Zelenskyy’s government — is one between the old guard and the new. The latter’s ideas about pursuing the conflict with drones and other technological capabilities, as opposed to sending more people into battle, resonate with Ukrainians, hence their jumping to his defence.
“It’s a very significant and potentially high-risk political situation for President Zelenskyy,” he said, although the removal of both men “has probably cauterised some of the political risk”.
Russia, which “is counting on” being able to outlast Ukraine in a war of attrition, will attempt to capitalise on political infighting, Tesch said, and any perceived reluctance to pursue the war will encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin that his grind-them-down approach will eventually succeed.
“It’s a dangerous inflection point,” he added.
Russia has been escalating aerial strikes in recent months and the United Nations has reported a surge in civilian deaths in Ukraine.
However, Ukraine has also upped its use of long-range drones to hit fuel infrastructure in Moscow, and has signed a recent anti-ballistic missile pact with European nations which will make it a key part of a new continental air-defence system.
Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, senior military studies fellow at the Lowy Institute, told SBS News that such political “crises” are nothing new in Ukraine and that, while it has been a “serious civil-military relationship crisis”, it is not a “dire” one when it comes to Ukraine’s military outlook.
“A certain amount of tension between soldiers and politicians, when you’re under the kind of stress the Ukrainians have been under for four and a half years, is totally normal in any country,” he said.
Still, Ukraine has been unable to hold democratic elections since 2019, and Tesch notes that the “issues” of Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy and national cohesion are ones he will have to continue to navigate as the war drags on.
The recent political flare-up, he argues, is “itself a sign of a healthy democracy” and one that disproves “Kremlin propaganda” questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy.
For Ryan, none of the recent drama changes the fundamentals. Zelenskyy is stuck between somewhat lacklustre Europe, an indifferent United States, and a Russian leader who is now locked in an existential battle and “does not appear willing to negotiate under any circumstances”.
“We need to temper our expectations for the new Ukrainian military leadership team,” he said.
On the ground, Goncharenko said the front line in the occupied territories has now been “a stalemate” for almost three years.
Along with Crimea, Russia now illegally occupies some 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, including parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, but neither side has been able to shift the balance decisively.
“There are no big changes, just thousands and thousands of people are dying,” he said. “This war should be stopped right now … but unfortunately the war continues,” Goncharenko said.
Australians, Tesch argues, have a clear stake in continuing to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia as the conflict, at its core, is over “whether international law has any meaning.”
“Anything which points to the lack of collective Western resolve to stand up for international law and to ensure that might does not make right is bad for Australia’s strategic interests regionally and globally,” he said.
“I’m pleased that successive Australian governments have stayed the course with Ukraine.”
Skubii, who has written that the world “has stopped seeing Ukraine” and now just accepts the grim, continued loss of life, said only substantial economic and sustained military pressure will force Russia to accept defeat. Until that point, while Ukrainians are tired and fearful of a fifth winter with intermittent heating, they have also learned to live with the war.
“It’s really very, very, very hard,” she said. “But, you know, children go to school, people continue to go to parties, weddings.
“Life is still going on.”