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United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have congratulated each other on a “historic” ceasefire in Gaza, but there is “a lot more” needed for peace in Gaza.
Hamas and Israel have reached an agreement in which Hamas will hand over all Israeli hostages, alive and dead, taken in the Palestinian group’s October 7 attack on Israel in 2023.
That’s in exchange for the release of close to 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
Further elements of a US-proposed 20-point peace plan, such as the disarmament of Hamas and the future of Gaza’s governance, are yet to be endorsed by both sides. The initial phase of the plan is anticipated to start in the coming days.
“This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
What are the initial steps of this plan?
Trump’s 20-point peace plan can be broken down into the short-term phase-one steps and long-term phase-two goals.
Phase one includes a release of hostages and prisoners, a return of humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer in peace and conflict studies at the University of Sydney, said this deal is different from previous attempts at negotiations in the region.
He explained that Trump appears to be “pushing harder” for Israel to make concessions and that this peace plan has gained “unprecedented support” from the Arab world.
“The deal has pushed Hamas into a corner and forced it to make concessions alongside concessions made by Israel,” he told SBS News.
Hamas has been given a deadline of 72 hours to release all living hostages, along with the bodies of the deceased captives in its custody.
“I’m told that some of the dead ones may not be found yet, so it’ll take time to find all of them. But the live hostages are apparently accounted for, and they’ll be released,” Mayroz said.
“Apparently, Hamas doesn’t have access to or doesn’t even know where some of the dead hostages are.”
Could someone renege on the deal?
Simon Frankel Pratt, a senior lecturer of political science at the University of Melbourne, told SBS News the deal is in its infancy and remains on “shaky grounds”.
“What happens in the probable event that Hamas takes longer than the agreed-upon 72 hours to recover the bodies of dead hostages?” he asked.
“Will Israel use that as a pretext to return to fighting?”
He said there’s a possibility the deal won’t last over the weekend.
“We’re going to be continuing to walk with bated breath.”
How important was Trump to the success of the negotiations?
Pratt said the timing of the deal is relevant, as both Trump and Netanyahu are in unique positions.
“Trump’s clear impatience and frustration and probably Trump’s strong desire to get a Nobel Peace Prize all contributed to him expressing a lot of impatience with Netanyahu,” he said.
“He poured a lot of pressure on Netanyahu and on the Israelis and sort of said, ‘You must do this now or face serious withdrawal of diplomatic support.'”
He also said that Netanyahu has lost “a lot of goodwill” from Gulf states that have “lost patience” with Israel.
This isolation has led to Israel becoming dependent on the US for support, according to Pratt.
“This established the right sort of conditions for Trump to say, ‘You must do this.’ And for Netanyahu to say, ‘Well, I don’t really have much choice,'” Pratt said.
What happens next with phase two?
While the release of hostages and prisoners is primed to go ahead, Mayroz said aspects of phase two remain “quite problematic”.
The “main challenge” will be a timeline for the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which is yet to be determined.
At that point, an international force will take possession of security in the strip.
Mayroz explained that this lack of a timeline could allow Israel to justify an ongoing military presence in Gaza.
“Israel is using that to say, until we have that force coming in, we will not fully withdraw. And it’ll take time to create such a force.”
Another challenge for negotiators will be convincing Hamas to give up its weapons, which they have yet to agree to.
Mayroz said the group would be “fearful” of doing so.
“Hamas doesn’t want to do that and still has not agreed to do that,” he said.
“Should they surrender all their weapons, then they could be targeted later on by Israel coming back into the strip or even by other enemies of Hamas within the strip.”
US and Arab states are key
Mayroz said US and Arab nations will play a key role in the success of the Gaza peace plan.
“I think the Americans will play a decisive role in terms of whether they are able to force the Israelis into following the plan, which at the moment is very fuzzy and ambiguous.
“So, they’ll have a lot more work to do.
“The Arab states, on their side, need to make sure that Hamas holds to its part of the bargain.”
Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Adelaide’s Flinders University, told SBS News the US is the only country that can ensure an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
“The US does remain the only key international player who could pressure Israel or bring influence to bear over Israel in order to fully cease that military operation in Gaza or to really accept some kind of medium to long-term peace plan,” she said.
When it comes to the influence of Arab states on Hamas, Genauer suggested that Qatar could have the largest sway over the militant group, as it hosts some of its leadership in Doha.
“They do have leverage there, and that they could say to the Hamas leadership, ‘Look, we are not going to continue to host you and give you safe living in Doha unless you agree to some kind of more permanent peace plan’, that’s also important.”
What’s still left to work out?
Genauer said several parts of phase two remain vague, with questions around Palestinian statehood and the future of Hamas up in the air.
One part of the deal would be “almost impossible” to achieve: freedom of movement for Gazans, who under the deal would be allowed to leave the strip.
“That’s something that hasn’t happened for decades and would be really difficult because Gazans need to exit either into Egypt or into Israel. And both of those countries are not willing for Gazans to exit,” she said.
“So it’s not clear what the plan is there. Would they be flown out to a third country in the region?”
Future governance of Gaza is also a sticking point, as Hamas has not confirmed it will give up its leadership ambitions, while Israel insists Hamas can have no leadership role in Gaza.
Genauer said the idea of a Palestinian committee has been raised, which could form a sort of “technocracy” in Gaza, but how it could function is unclear.
“It’s not clear who that would actually be, where those people would come from, and how Palestinians themselves would be engaged in making those decisions and appointing those people.”
Mayroz said that for peace to be achieved, there would have to be leadership changes in both Hamas and the Israeli government.
“The current Netanyahu government cannot provide full peace. The current leadership of Hamas or the Palestinian leadership cannot provide that either,” he said.
“There have to be elections on both sides and changes that will allow for that.”
Pratt said that the international community should prioritise aid distribution to vulnerable Palestinians in Gaza and ensure that food and supplies are protected by a security force.
