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ANALYSIS: If the opinion polls hold true, today’s election in South Australia seems poised for a decisive victory for Peter Malinauskas and the Labor Party. But is the situation as straightforward as it appears?
Labor touts the past four years as a period of significant achievements. Under Malinauskas, South Australia has emerged as a hub for international events, becoming the new host for LIV Golf, Moto GP, the Supercars grand finale, and the Gather Round.
The government has also made notable interventions, such as rescuing the ailing Whyalla Steelworks and the Port Pirie lead smelter. Furthermore, Labor stepped in to save the disability employer Bedford from financial collapse and expanded its majority in the lower house by securing victories in two by-elections.
Nevertheless, the promise made during the 2022 election to resolve the ramping crisis remains a thorn in their side. Malinauskas has openly acknowledged his desire for “a far better result,” despite urging voters that their choice was crucial for their well-being.
Despite investing over $1 billion in the health system, the hours of ramping have more than doubled since they assumed control.
The government has also faced criticism over the wasting of more than $300 million on a hydrogen power plant which was scrapped during their term of government.
But a generous characterisation of their opponents would be substandard.
The South Australian Liberals have had four leaders in four years. Two stepped away from politics and one is now a convicted drug supplier. That man, David Speirs was revealed exclusively by 9News to be recontesting this election as an independent.
In 2023, the Liberals lost Mackillop MP Nick McBride to the cross bench, he is now recontesting the election with an ankle bracelet, facing domestic violence charges.
Another Liberal-turned-independent Troy Bell was sent to jail just last year, and former party member and now crossbench member Fraser Ellis is appealing a guilty finding of deception.
The Liberals have been unable to escape accusations of ill-discipline and with three former members going through the court system over the last term, they’ve been incapable of justifying a “tough on crime” stance.
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Their third leader Vincent Tarzia stepped down following unpopular polling, leaving first term MP Ashton Hurn just over 100 days to lead the party to Saturday’s election.
Cue the rise of One Nation. Polling now shows that Pauline Hanson’s party is the second most popular in South Australia. Their profile aided by the announcement of a star candidate, former Liberal senator and television host Cory Bernardi.
The rise of One Nation threatens to split the conservative vote, forcing the Liberals into a fight for their political survival. But there are also signs the party is making inroads into Labor’s traditional base, particularly among blue-collar voters in Adelaide’s northern suburbs.
Whether that support translates into votes remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: while the result may look predictable on paper, the dynamics shaping this election are anything but simple, and given the potential impact of One Nation’s rise on upcoming elections across the country, it’s certain Australia will be watching.
What was the key driver of your vote in the SA election?
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