The Houston Rockets Might Be Trying To Emulate The Late-2010s Lakers

After three years of rebuilding, the Houston Rockets are angling to make a big splash during the 2023 NBA offseason. They’ve hardly hid their intention to reunite with Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden in free agency, and they might not be done there.

Armed with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft and a league-high $65.3 million in projected salary-cap space this summer, the Rockets could try to acquire a second star via trade if they sign Harden. In doing so, they might be seeking to emulate the late-2010s Los Angeles Lakers, who acquired Anthony Davis in a blockbuster deal less than a year after signing LeBron James in free agency and immediately proceeded to win a championship.

On Christmas Day, ESPN’s rian Wojnarowski reported Harden was “seriously considering” a return to the Rockets if he didn’t re-sign with the Sixers, and that chatter hasn’t quieted down since. Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported in mid-May that Harden does intend to decline his $35.6 million player option to become a free agent and is seeking a four-year contract.

In mid-May, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported “the belief among NBA executives” was that Harden would head back to Houston this summer. Even if the Rockets sign him to a full max deal beginning at $46.9 million, they would still have more than $15 million in cap space and the $7.6 million room mid-level exception to round out their roster.

Unless Harden takes a major discount for the second straight season or they dump Kevin Porter Jr.’s $15.9 million salary without taking money back, the Rockets won’t have enough cap room to sign a second star this offseason. However, they could try to package Porter’s contract with some of their recent draft picks to find Harden a running mate.

According to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, the Rockets have already discussed the idea of trading 2021 No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green in such a package. They also have 2022 No. 3 overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. and the No. 4 pick in this year’s draft to offer as headliners in a trade, and they could add recent first-round picks such as Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason, Josh Christopher and/or TyTy Washington Jr. as sweeteners.

The Davis trade could give them a framework for such a deal. The Lakers sent a pair of former No. 2 overall picks (Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram) along with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft, Josh Hart, two additional first-round picks and a first-round pick swap to the New Orleans Pelicans for him in 2019.

Depending on whom they target, the Rockets might not have to give up all three of Green, Smith and this year’s No. 4 pick for a second star. They could sweeten the pot by offering the No. 20 pick in this year’s draft (via the Los Angeles Clippers) and/or two future unprotected first-round picks from the Brooklyn Nets (2024 and 2026). However, they owe two of their own future top-four-protected first-rounders (2024 and 2026) to the Oklahoma City Thunder from the Chris Paul/Russell Westbrook trade, which limits how many of their picks they can trade away.

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The Stepien Rule prohibits teams from being without a first-round pick in back-to-back drafts. The Rockets could offer both the Nos. 4 and 20 picks this year, but they then couldn’t trade the 2024 Nets first-rounder since they aren’t guaranteed to have their own pick that year. If they keep both of the Nets picks, they could offer their own 2025 first-rounder even though they owe their lightly protected 2024 and 2026 firsts to the Thunder since they’d be guaranteed at least one pick in those two drafts.

Rival NBA executives do believe the Rockets will use the No. 4 pick in this year’s draft “as trade bait,” according to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto. Kelly Iko of The Athletic reported they are “open to potentially moving down or acquiring a win-now veteran if an opportunity presents itself.” However, the Portland Trail Blazers are also widely expected to dangle the No. 3 pick for a win-now veteran to pair with star guard Damian Lillard, which could complicate the Rockets’ trade overtures.

Outside of the No. 3 pick, Anfernee Simons and 2022 No. 7 overall pick Shaedon Sharpe, the Blazers don’t appear to have much of interest for a rebuilding team. They’re also hamstrung in which future first-round picks they’re allowed to trade, as they owe a lottery-protected first-rounder to the Chicago Bulls that could convey as late as 2028. The Rockets should be able to win an arms race against the Blazers if they’re in direct competition for the same star.

The big question is whom the Rockets should target as Harden’s potential running mate. New head coach Ime Udoka hinted at some potential archetypes during his introductory press conference in late April.

“Shooting is at a premium and an area we struggled this year, so we want to improve that,” he said. “And then just some contrasting pieces to what we already have. Whether it’s bigs—Alperen does some things really well, but we would like to add some different types of bigs. Shooting on the wings.”

The Toronto Raptors would likely listen to inquiries about forwards Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, both of whom are heading into the final year of their respective contracts. The Chicago Bulls claim to have no interest in rebuilding, and there might be positional overlap between Harden and Zach LaVine, but the two could hypothetically form an interchangeable backcourt. Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns might also be of interest if the Wolves decide they’re in need of a shakeup after their blockbuster acquisition of Rudy Gobert last summer led to underwhelming results.

The Lakers wound up winning a championship in the first season after they acquired Davis. The Rockets probably won’t replicate that level of success next year, but they likely aren’t angling to sign the soon-to-be 34-year-old Harden to surround him with young, inexperienced players.

If Harden does head back to Houston this offseason, another star might not be far behind. The only question is whom the Rockets could have their eyes on.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.