What’s Next For Duncan Robinson?

The shot is still a work in progress, something you might not expect to hear when it comes to Duncan Robinson. But it’s not the 3-point shot, of which Robinson has made 752 over the past three seasons. Rather, it’s a floater in the lane that he has been showing off on occasion during the Miami Heat preseason and was working on to wrap up a recent practice.

The floater, said Robinson during an interview with Forbes, has always been there. Still, according to the NBA’s statistics site, Robinson attempted a total of nine in 79 appearances last season. In five preseason games this year, he’s already attempted six.

The floater isn’t necessarily an affirmation of anything, especially if you accept Robinson’s insistence that it has long been part of an offensive repertoire that has been mostly limited – by design – to beyond the 3-point arc. But its frequency during the preseason shows that Robinson is committed to doing something different after what many believe was a disappointing year.

“I’ve always had the ability to do it,” says Robinson, “It’s just more of like a mindset shift of just being a little bit more deliberate about getting to it.”

That shift is of particular interest to Heat fans as well as a potential factor in determining the team’s success this upcoming season. After signing a five-year $90M contract in 2021, Robinson struggled the following season. He shot 37.2 percent from 3-point range, was taken out of the starting lineup midway through the season, and was in and out of the rotation for months, including during Miami’s run through the Eastern Conference Finals.

Robinson is hesitant to describe what, if anything, went wrong last season – “I don’t know if there was an actual, palpable discomfort.” – but there’s no denying there were moments where he was unable to find his place out on the floor. After two seasons of shooting at historic levels (Robinson shot 42.7 percent on nearly nine 3-point attempts per game over that stretch), last year’s drop, while still well above league average, represented a significant plummet. Last season’s production might just be a sharp contrast to an incredibly high bar, or of playing in yet another tweaked rotation with two new starters. Or worse, that the pressures of a lucrative contract were too much for someone who clawed his way from a low-level college program to becoming a key focal point for a team with championship aspirations.

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But that was last season and Robinson is glad to put it behind him and focus on being productive, despite a role that is still unclear to him. “Whatever is asked to me, the goal is for me to just fall into that role, the best way I know how. That’s part of being on a team, you give into what’s best for the team. I feel comfortable in a lot of different situations, so I’m not somebody that’s going to worry about starting or not starting or [let it] get in the way of being a productive player. I feel like I can still impact the game, as long as I’m on the floor.”

The preseason shows that he’s embraced this philosophy, in as much as exhibition games can be used as an accurate barometer for the 82-game slough that awaits him. There was a 29-point outing against the Memphis Grizzlies to help lead a comeback from a 21-point deficit. There was a focus on avoiding foul trouble and being a more competent 1-on-1 defender, a problem that has dogged Robinson since he became a full-time starter in 2019. And then there’s the floater or, moreover, the intent that fuels it, standing out brightly next to the khaki-colored shooting that largely defined his offensive repertoire.

Still, the contract looms large, just as it has for players throughout the league’s history, and there will always be detractors that believe that Robinson cannot live up to its perceived value. But that’s beyond Robinson’s control, just like the decision whether or not he has a consistent role in Miami’s rotation. That task falls on head coach Erik Spoelstra, who often describes Robinson as “ignitable.” One could catch fire and provide a reliable burst of energy, or simply blow up in everyone’s face, including Robinson’s.

Robinson has earned the benefit of the doubt, however. The contract isn’t going anywhere and it was earned for his role in a team that advanced to the NBA Finals in 2020. He weathered last season’s storm and despite his public affirmation that last year wasn’t difficult, he simply looks more comfortable.

Entering his fifth year in the league – “Time flies, huh?” – he’s no longer the undrafted kid trying to earn his way onto the roster, hoping to avoid the long flights to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, where Miami’s G-League affiliate is buried because players can focus on basketball and nothing else. He feels, for the first time, like a veteran with a role to play, and the challenge of finding the way to thrive in whatever opportunities are given to him.

“I’ve never been older or as experienced as I have been today, and tomorrow, I’ll be even more. Right?,” Robinson says with a wry grin, a curious mix of sagacity and optimism. But the fluctuating role has added to his journey, and he’s finding his rhythm just when the Heat need it most. “I’ve come to terms with last year. There’s still challenges but, you know, that’s part of competing at this level.”