Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 30, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The supporting actress race is the most wide open of any category this year. You can pick any of the names listed no. 1 through no. 30 as your predicted winner, and I could believe you. We’ll see where the consensus lies. Expect lots of placement shifts and movements in the rankings over the next few weeks.
With the news of contenders campaigning in this category such as Thuso Mbedu alongside Lashana Lynch for “The Woman King” and Emma Corrin, as part of the ensemble for “My Policeman,” the race adds even more possibilities.
The biggest benefactors of Michelle Williams moving to lead actress, are any number of the women from Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking.” With no decisions yet announced on where the ladies will campaign, a majority of them are expected to go for supporting attention. Jessie Buckley, fresh off her nom for “The Lost Daughter” (2021), could be the easiest thing to recognize, while her co-star Claire Foy, still hoping to make up for her grotesque snub for “First Man” (2018), could be right on her heels.
What will be interesting is to assess if they will stop there for the movie that was the runner-up of the People’s Choice Award at TIFF to Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.” Would the Actors Branch be willing to tack one more on with Judith Ivey’s fiery turn, which stands out in the film’s final moments? The Academy has done it before. In supporting actress, it’s happened once for the best picture winner “Tom Jones” (1963), which landed Diane Cilento, Edith Evans and Joyce Redman in the lineup. They all lost to Margaret Rutherford for “The V.I.P.s.”
For comparison, it’s happened three times with supporting actor – “On the Waterfront” (1954), “The Godfather” (1972) and “The Godfather Part II” (1974). Of the group, only Robert DeNiro pulled out a win for the 1974 sequel.
A third of the time, this category has yielded more than one actress nominated for the same movie. There are a large number of films angling to exploit that statistic: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Laura Dern and Vanessa Kirby for “The Son” and Hong Chau and Sadie Sink for “The Whale.”
We’re still waiting on the word for “She Said,” which could put either Carey Mulligan or Zoe Kazan in this race, or a rumored standout Jennifer Ehle; possibly even Patricia Clarkson.
Maybe previous winners such as Anne Hathaway from “Armageddon Time” or Whoopi Goldberg from “Till” can catch on as their films progress in the race. Even two-time winner Sally Field (“Norma Rae” and “Places in the Heart”) could factor in for the adaptation of “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies.”
More to go.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.