2023 Oscars Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 30, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

THE WOMAN KING, Thuso Mbedu, 2022. © TriStar Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

©TriStar Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The supporting actress race is the most wide open of any category this year. You can pick any of the names listed no. 1 through no. 30 as your predicted winner, and I could believe you. We’ll see where the consensus lies. Expect lots of placement shifts and movements in the rankings over the next few weeks.

With the news of contenders campaigning in this category such as Thuso Mbedu alongside Lashana Lynch for “The Woman King” and Emma Corrin, as part of the ensemble for “My Policeman,” the race adds even more possibilities.

The biggest benefactors of Michelle Williams moving to lead actress, are any number of the women from Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking.” With no decisions yet announced on where the ladies will campaign, a majority of them are expected to go for supporting attention. Jessie Buckley, fresh off her nom for “The Lost Daughter” (2021), could be the easiest thing to recognize, while her co-star Claire Foy, still hoping to make up for her grotesque snub for “First Man” (2018), could be right on her heels.

What will be interesting is to assess if they will stop there for the movie that was the runner-up of the People’s Choice Award at TIFF to Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.” Would the Actors Branch be willing to tack one more on with Judith Ivey’s fiery turn, which stands out in the film’s final moments? The Academy has done it before. In supporting actress, it’s happened once for the best picture winner “Tom Jones” (1963), which landed Diane Cilento, Edith Evans and Joyce Redman in the lineup. They all lost to Margaret Rutherford for “The V.I.P.s.”

For comparison, it’s happened three times with supporting actor – “On the Waterfront” (1954), “The Godfather” (1972) and “The Godfather Part II” (1974). Of the group, only Robert DeNiro pulled out a win for the 1974 sequel.

A third of the time, this category has yielded more than one actress nominated for the same movie. There are a large number of films angling to exploit that statistic: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Laura Dern and Vanessa Kirby for “The Son” and Hong Chau and Sadie Sink for “The Whale.”

We’re still waiting on the word for “She Said,” which could put either Carey Mulligan or Zoe Kazan in this race, or a rumored standout Jennifer Ehle; possibly even Patricia Clarkson.

Maybe previous winners such as Anne Hathaway from “Armageddon Time” or Whoopi Goldberg from “Till” can catch on as their films progress in the race. Even two-time winner Sally Field (“Norma Rae” and “Places in the Heart”) could factor in for the adaptation of “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies.”

More to go.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank Name Film Distributor
1 Jessie Buckley “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
2 Jamie Lee Curtis “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3 Nina Hoss “TÁR” Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
4 Thuso Mbedu “The Woman King” Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
5 Janelle Monáe “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case.
Next in Line
6 Claire Foy “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
7 Angela Bassett “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
8 Kerry Condon “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
9 Stephanie Hsu “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
10 Dolly De Leon “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11 Lashana Lynch “The Woman King” Sony Pictures
12 Jennifer Ehle “She Said” Universal Pictures
13 Hong Chau “The Whale” A24
14 Judith Ivey “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
15 Laura Dern “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
16 Gabrielle Union “The Inspection” A24
17 Anne Hathaway “Armageddon Time” Focus Features
18 Sheila McCarthy “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
19 Sadie Sink “The Whale” A24
20 Whoopi Goldberg “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
Also In Contention
21 Vanessa Kirby “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
22 Aimee Lou Wood “Living” Sony Pictures Classics
23 Olivia DeJonge “Elvis” Warner Bros.
24 Nicole Kidman “The Northman” Focus Features
25 Jean Smart “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
26 Dakota Johnson “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
27 Frances McDormand “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
28 Sally Field “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features
29 Keke Palmer* “Nope” Universal Pictures
30 Emma Corrin* “My Policeman” Amazon Studios
Other Awards Possibilities
31 Dominique Thorne “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
32 Rooney Mara* “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
33 Tamara Lawarance* “The Silent Twins” Focus Features
34 Zoe Kazan* “She Said” Universal Pictures
35 Danai Gurira “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
36 Patricia Clarkson “She Said” Universal Pictures
37 Lupita Nyong’o “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
38 Kate Winslet “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
39 Julia Butters “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
40 Michelle Williams* “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
Aimee Carrero “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
Aimee Lou Wood* “Living” Sony Pictures Classics
Andrea Riseborough “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Angela Bassett “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Anne Hathaway* “Armageddon Time” Focus Features
Anya Taylor-Joy “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Billie Piper “Catherine Called Birdy” Amazon Studios
Bria Danielle Singleton “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” Sony Pictures
Candice Bergen “As They Made Us” Quiver
CCH Pounder “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Charlotte Gainsbourg “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
Chloë Sevigny “Bones & All” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Claire Foy “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Crystal Clarke “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures
Dakota Johnson “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films
Danai Gurira “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Dolly De Leon “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
Dominique Thorne “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Doona Bae “Broker” Neon
Edie Falco “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Elizabeth Olsen “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” Marvel Studios
Ella Hunt “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
Émilie Dequenne “Close” A24
Emily Mitchell “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Emma Corrin* “My Policeman” Amazon Studios
Emma Thompson “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” No U.S. Distribution
Florence Kasumba “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Frances McDormand* “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Gabrielle Union “Strange World” Walt Disney Pictures
Gabrielle Union “The Inspection” A24
Gemma Chan “Don’t Worry Darling” Warner Bros
Gillian Anderson “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
Greta Gerwig* “White Noise” Netflix
Griselda Sicillani “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Haley Bennett “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
Hong Chau “The Whale” A24
Iris Berben “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
Isabella Rossellini “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” A24
Jamie Lee Curtis “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24
Janelle Monáe “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Janet McTeer “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
Jayme Lawson “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
Jean Smart “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Jennifer Connelly “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures
Jennifer Ehle “She Said” Universal Pictures
Jessica Chastain “Armageddon Time” Focus Features
Jessica Hardwick “The Lost King” Warner Bros.
Jessica Henwick “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Jessie Buckley “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Jodie Turner-Smith “White Noise” Netflix
Joely Richardson “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix
Judi Dench “Allelujah” No U.S. Distribution
Judith Ivey “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Judith Ivey “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Judith Light “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures
Julia Butters “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
Julianne Nicholson “Blonde” Netflix
Kaitlyn Dever “Ticket to Paradise” Netflix
Kate Hallett “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Kate Hudson “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Kate Winslet “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Kathryn Hahn “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Keke Palmer* “Nope” Universal Pictures
Kerry Condon “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures
Kim Dickens “The Good Nurse” Netflix
Kristen Stewart “Crimes of the Future” Neon
Lashana Lynch “The Woman King” Sony Pictures
Laura Dern “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
Léa Drucker “Close” A24
Léa Seydoux “Crimes of the Future” Neon
Letitia Wright* “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Lucy Boynton “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures
Lucy Boynton “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix
Lupita Nyong’o “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios
Madelyn Cline “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix
Mar Carrera “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Margot Robbie* “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Maria Bakalova “Bodies Bodies Bodies” A24
Marsha Stephanie Blake “Brother” No U.S. Distribution
Meteora Fontana “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Mia Wasikowska “Blueback” No U.S. Distribution
Michelle McLeod “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Michelle Monaghan “Nanny” Amazon Studios
Michelle Williams “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures
Michelle Yeoh “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Minnie Driver “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures
Niamh Algar “The Wonder” Netflix
Nicole Kidman “The Northman” Focus Features
Nina Hoss “TÁR” Focus Features
Noémie Merlant “TÁR” Focus Features
Octavia Spencer “Spirited” Apple Original Films
Olivia DeJonge “Elvis” Warner Bros.
Olivia Wilde “Babylon” Paramount Pictures
Olivia Wilde “Don’t Worry Darling” Warner Bros
Oona Chaplin “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Patricia Clarkson “Monica” No U.S. Distribution
Patricia Clarkson “She Said” Universal Pictures
Quintessa Swindell “Black Adam” Warner Bros
Rachel Keller “Butcher’s Crossing” Saban Films
Rachel Keller “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures
Radha Mitchell “Blueback” No U.S. Distribution
Raffey Cassidy “White Noise” Netflix
Rooney Mara* “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Ruth Wilson “See How They Run” Searchlight Pictures
Sadie Sink “The Whale” A24
Sally Field “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features
Samantha Morton “She Said” Universal Pictures
Samantha Morton “The Whale” A24
Samara Weaving “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures
Saoirse Ronan* “See How They Run” Searchlight Pictures
Shayla Brown “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sheila Atim “The Woman King” Sony Pictures
Sheila McCarthy “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sian Clifford “See How They Run” Searchlight Pictures
Sigourney Weaver “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios
Sigourney Weaver “Call Jane” Roadside Attractions
Sigourney Weaver “Master Gardener” No U.S. Distribution
Sophie Okonedo “Raymond & Ray” Apple Original Films
Stephanie Hsu “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24
Tamara Lawarance* “The Silent Twins” Focus Features
Tamara Tunie “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” Sony Pictures
Tanya Moodie “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures
Taylor Swift “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Tessa Thompson “Thor: Love and Thunder” Marvel Studios
Thusa Mbedu “The Woman King” Sony Pictures
Vanessa Kirby “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics
Vicki Berlin “Triangle of Sadness” Neon
Whoopi Goldberg “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing
Wunmi Mosaku “Alice, Darling” Lionsgate
Ximena Lamadrid “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix
Zoe Kazan “She Said” Universal Pictures
Zoë Kravitz “The Batman” Warner Bros.
Zoe Saldaña “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios
Zooey Deschanel “Dreamin’ Wild” No U.S. Distribution

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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