My main gripe with this season of Netflix’s The Great British Baking Show is that the competition has been somewhat lackluster. Since Episode 3, “Bread Week,” one contestant has consistently outshone the others, securing four Star Baker titles, numerous handshakes, and even topping the Technical challenge. While I admire this contestant and their creations, it’s starting to feel like their victory is inevitable. The question remains: is there anyone left in the tent who can prevent Jasmine Mitchell from claiming the top prize?

**Spoilers for The Great British Baking Show, through Episode 8 “Desserts Week,” now streaming on Netflix**

At just 23 years old, Jasmine Mitchell, a medical student, entered the competition as the youngest baker this season and now stands as the frontrunner. Thus far, she has captured half of the season’s Star Baker awards and has never been on the brink of elimination. Week after week, judges Paul Hollywood and Prue Leith have showered her with praise, almost to the point of predictability. Her dominance is so pronounced that everyone, from host Noel Fielding to her fellow contestants, has begun to playfully mock her consistent excellence. Fielding has jokingly questioned her skills when she makes minor errors, quipping, “I thought you were supposed to be good!” Meanwhile, Aaron Mountford-Myles has vowed to tackle next week’s Semi-Finals with renewed determination, declaring, “Jasmine’s not getting that Star Baker.”

Jasmine’s seemingly invincible streak can be attributed to her straightforward approach to baking. Instead of introducing exotic flavors to sway Paul and Prue, she opts for classic recipes. While others attempt ambitious feats, Jasmine focuses on keeping her presentations clean and flawless. In her confessionals, she has revealed that her strategy of executing simplicity at its finest appears to be working remarkably well.

So, is there anyone who can outshine Jasmine? Or should she start clearing space in her kitchen for the coveted cake stand?

Well, let’s look at the remaining competition. Tom Arden, Aaron Mountford-Myles, and Toby Littlewood each have won Star Baker once, with Toby’s win coming last week. Tom burst out the gate as one of the strongest bakers in the field, but has struggled in recent weeks with consistency. Aaron has maybe had the least consistent season of the group, often slipping into danger after rising to success. Nevertheless, he was in contention for Star Baker this week, which shouldn’t be overlooked. Toby started the season near the bottom of the heap, almost being eliminated right out the gate. However, he’s begun to rise in the ranks in recent weeks. Meaning, he’s peaking at the perfect time.

Usually, I would say that any of the three guys has what it takes to eventually beat Jasmine in the final. All they need is to survive Patisserie Week and pull out all the stops in the finale. The problem, however, is Paul and Prue often look back over the whole season when they make their final decision. Jasmine’s consistency probably will ensure her that final win… unless it bites her in the butt first.

Jasmine’s strategy so far has been to play it safe. Her simple, elegantly-executed approach has been successful for weeks now. What could go wrong? Well, Paul and Prue began pointing out this week that she does seem hooked on the same flavor combinations. They could demand more from the young baker: more creativity, more flavors, more drama. That added pressure could unfurl Jasmine’s strategy at the most pivotal moment.

Furthermore, we only have to look back at recent seasons of The Great British Baking Show to see a certain trend. In 2023, Tasha Stones, the franchise’s first deaf contestant, was heading into the semi-finals in pole position only to be eliminated after “Patisserie Week.” Similarly, last year’s wunderkind Dylan Bachelet seemed like the favorite to win the whole thing, but fell short in the finale. Jasmine’s rise could be edited by production to precipitate her eventual fall.

Nevertheless, unless something truly wild happens during next week’s semi-finals, Jasmine Mitchell seems like the clear frontrunner to win the 2025 season of The Great British Baking Show. She is by far the most consistent, most celebrated, and most clear-headed baker left in the tent. Will that be what ensures her ultimate victory or presages her dramatic doom?