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Over the past three decades, the Best Actor category at the Oscars has often seemed like a foregone conclusion before the ceremony even begins. Of course, there have been unexpected turns; take 2021, for instance, when the award was saved for the finale, with many anticipating a posthumous win for Chadwick Boseman. Instead, Anthony Hopkins clinched the award, and he wasn’t even present at the event. Last year, Adrien Brody’s win for The Brutalist wasn’t guaranteed, echoing the surprise of his earlier triumph for The Pianist. Yet, it’s uncommon that, with just a couple of weeks left, nearly every nominee appears to have a plausible chance at winning. Throughout much of the 2010s, the early favorite often secured the Oscar.
This year’s unpredictability was underscored by the recent Actor Awards, where the SAG/AFTRA honored Michael B. Jordan as Best Actor for his remarkable portrayal of twin brothers in Sinners. Jordan, who has consistently delivered outstanding performances without becoming ubiquitous, particularly in collaborations with Ryan Coogler, was a commendable choice. However, he wasn’t the anticipated frontrunner for the Oscar. That distinction previously belonged to Timothée Chalamet, who snagged a Golden Globe for Marty Supreme. Despite the lack of direct overlap between the Globes and Academy voters, Chalamet has been campaigning passionately, reminiscent of the dedication seen in his character.
While a showdown between Jordan and Chalamet might seem likely given their status as two of the most successful under-50 stars in Hollywood, other strong contenders remain in the mix. The category is notably robust this year, featuring five stellar performances, a rarity in recent Oscar races. Let’s delve into the nominees and consider which past winners they might evoke.
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Past Winner Parallel: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Strangely, DiCaprio seems to be the one nominee no one is predicting for the win. On one hand, it makes sense; he got through his Chalamet years and eventually emerged with his Oscar, for The Revenant. On the other, since when does the Academy avoid giving a beloved performer multiple awards? Frances McDormand has three. Emma Stone has two. Tom Hanks won two years in a row! And Anthony Hopkins won multiple decades apart, for a movie far fewer people saw than One Battle After Another. There was no narrative-driven reason to give Hopkins the award; his legacy was assured. But people really loved the performance, so that was that. That would also be how DiCaprio could win for One Battle After Another, and honestly, if I were in the Academy, it’s one I’d be highly tempted to vote for because I just plain loved DiCaprio in angry burnout mode, flopping around looking for a phone charger and raging against his radical compatriots and being a dick to his daughter’s friends. It completes his unofficial American Buffoon Trilogy following Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Killers of the Flower Moon, and it’s the most touching performance of the three by far. But for whatever reason, this is one of the few categories where Anderson’s film isn’t seen as competitive; DiCaprio winning would be a true shocker.
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Past Winner Precedent: Nicolas Cage, Leaving Las Vegas
When nominations were first announced, pundits seemed to think Hawke was the dark-horse spoiler for Chalamet – the veteran who could swoop in and upset the inge-dude through sheer force of filmography. (Hawke and Chalamet are both on their third acting nomination, but Hawke has been around for 40 years.) That narrative seems to have dissipated a bit now that Hawke’s wins have been limited to critics’ groups. But sometimes a critics’ fave playing a gregarious alcoholic can pull through; just look at Nic Cage in Leaving Las Vegas! OK, so that was 30 years ago and widely predicted, but stranger things have happened!
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Past Winner Precedent: Adrien Brody, The Pianist
Chalamet’s fellow Golden Globes winner (Marty Supreme was classified as a comedy, while The Secret Agent was over in drama) is the least famous of this bunch by far, and tied with Jordan for the least-nominated. Yet sometimes that works in an actor’s favor; Adrien Brody beat out an astonishing group of Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, Nicolas Cage, and Michael Caine. The fact that he was the only first-time nominee – really the only non-globally-famous nominee – helped him stand out. Moura does actually have some global fame; he’s won a bunch of awards in his native Brazil, and the Academy is increasingly international, on top of which the Golden Globes did boost his profile. Also, as with Marty Supreme, this is the high-profile category where the movie in question might have the best shot.
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Past Winner Precedent: Tom Hanks, Forrest Gump
Jordan gave a charismatic performance with a high degree of technical difficulty (technically, it’s two performances!) in one of the most beloved movies of the year, so it’s not surprising that he’d stay in contention even as later-season contenders have emerged. That’s what unexpectedly ties Jordan to Tom Hanks in Forrest Gump even though the characters are wildly disparate. (They’re all southerners, though!) He’s also got some Jack Nicholson energy in the way he uses his natural movie-star charisma to nonetheless create distinctive characters. So why isn’t he the flat-out frontrunner? I wonder if Sinners will be seen as more of a technical achievement belonging to Ryan Coogler and his below-the-line crew rather than an actors’ showcase. Also, quite unlike Hanks in 1994, this is Jordan’s first nomination, and a certain amount of pointless time-testing seems to be in play for male performers. Speaking of which…
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Past Winner Precedent: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Full circle: Chalamet comes across like a new DiCaprio, in that he graduated from teenage roles for impressive directors to box-office bankability while maintaining plenty of artistic cred. He’s actually ahead of DiCaprio in the Oscar department, with three nominations by the age of 30; by this point, Leo only had two. Here’s the rub: He didn’t win until nomination number five, perhaps indicative of a weird Academy bias where under-30 women can win Best Actress without much objection (see Mikey Madison, Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone), but the male winners tend to be veterans. In fact, Brody in The Pianist is the only Best Actor winner under 30. Ever. (And he was about a month shy.) Chalamet would be the second-youngest winner ever. Does Chalamet want it too much, did some Marty Supreme-related controversy cause an enthusiasm shortfall as the season went on, or is he still on the faster-than-Leo track to win? It’s a nailbiter for the nominees, but a refreshing change of pace for awards-watchers that it feels truly unclear less than two weeks out.
Jesse Hassenger (@rockmarooned) is a writer living in Brooklyn podcasting at www.sportsalcohol.com. He’s a regular contributor to The A.V. Club, Polygon, and The Guardian, among others.